A novel nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes to predict survival for non-metastatic gallbladder adenocarcinoma after surgery

Abstract

The prognosis of non-metastatic gallbladder adenocarcinoma (NM-GBA) patients is affected by the status of metastatic lymph nodes. The purpose of this study was to explore the prognostic value of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) and develop a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in NM-GBA patients. A total of 1035 patients confirmed to have NM-GBA were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and further divided into training and validation cohorts. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration plots. The net benefits and clinical utility of the nomogram were quantified and compared with those of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system using decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). The risk stratifications of the nomogram and the TNM-staging system were compared. LODDS showed the highest accuracy in predicting OS for NM-GBA. The C-index (0.730 for the training cohort and 0.746 for the validation cohort) and the time-dependent AUC (> 0.7) indicated the satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomogram. The calibration plots showed a high degree of consistency. The DCA, NRI, and IDI indicated that the nomogram performed significantly better than the TNM-staging (P < 0.05). A novel LODDS-included nomogram was developed and validated to assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of NM-GBA patients.