A nomogram to predict hyperkalemia in patients with hemodialysis: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background

Hyperkalemia increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular-related hospitalizations in patients with hemodialysis. Predictors of hyperkalemia are yet to be identified. We aimed at developing a nomogram able to predict hyperkalemia in patients with hemodialysis.

Methods

We retrospectively screened patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who had regularly received hemodialysis between Jan 1, 2017, and Aug 31, 2021, at Lishui municipal central hospital in China. The outcome for the nomogram was hyperkalemia, defined as serum potassium [K⁺] ≥ 5.5 mmol/L. Data were collected from hemodialysis management system. Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) analysis selected predictors preliminarily. A prediction model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression and presented as a nomogram. The performance of nomogram was measured by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration diagram, and decision curve analysis (DCA). This model was validated internally by calculating the performance on a validation cohort.

Results

A total of 401 patients were enrolled in this study. 159 (39.65%) patients were hyperkalemia. All participants were divided into development (n = 256) and validation (n = 145) cohorts randomly. Predictors in this nomogram were the number of hemodialysis session, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum sodium, serum calcium, serum phosphorus, and diabetes. The ROC curve of the training set was 0.82 (95%CI 0.77, 0.88). Similar ROC curve was achieved at validation set 0.81 (0.74, 0.88). The calibration curve demonstrated that the prediction outcome was correlated with the observed outcome.

Conclusion

This nomogram helps clinicians in predicting the risk of PEW and managing serum potassium in the patients with hemodialysis.