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© 2021 The Author(s). This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Ocean acidification (OA) is increasing predictably in the global ocean as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to higher oceanic concentrations of inorganic carbon. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a seasonally varying region of confluence for many processes that further affect the carbonate system including freshwater influences and high productivity, particularly near the coast where local processes impart a strong influence. Two main regions within the GOM currently experience carbonate conditions that are suboptimal for many organisms—the nearshore and subsurface deep shelf. OA trends over the past 15 years have been masked in the GOM by recent warming and changes to the regional circulation that locally supply more Gulf Stream waters. The region is home to many commercially important shellfish that are vulnerable to OA conditions, as well as to the human populations whose dependence on shellfish species in the fishery has continued to increase over the past decade. Through a review of the sensitivity of the regional marine ecosystem inhabitants, we identified a critical threshold of 1.5 for the aragonite saturation state (Ωa). A combination of regional high-resolution simulations that include coastal processes were used to project OA conditions for the GOM into 2050. By 2050, the Ωa declines everywhere in the GOM with most pronounced impacts near the coast, in subsurface waters, and associated with freshening. Under the RCP 8.5 projected climate scenario, the entire GOM will experience conditions below the critical Ωa threshold of 1.5 for most of the year by 2050. Despite these declines, the projected warming in the GOM imparts a partial compensatory effect to Ωa by elevating saturation states considerably above what would result from acidification alone and preserving some important fisheries locations, including much of Georges Bank, above the critical threshold.

Details

Title
Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050
Author
Siedlecki SA 1 ; Salisbury, J 2 ; Gledhill, D K 3 ; Bastidas, C 4 ; Meseck, S 5 ; McGarry, K 1 ; Hunt, C W 2 ; Alexander, M 6 ; Lavoie, D 7 ; Wang, Z A 8 ; Scott, J 6 ; Brady, D C 9 ; Mlsna, I 10 ; Azetsu-Scott, K 11 ; Liberti, C M 9 ; Melrose, D C 12 ; White, M M 13 ; Pershing, A 14 ; Vandemark, D 2 ; Townsend, D W 9 ; Chen, C 15 ; Mook, W 13 ; Morrison, R 16 

 Department of Marine Sciences, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, USA 
 Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA 
 NOAA OAR Ocean Acidification Program (OAP), Silver Spring, MD, USA 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sea Grant Program, Cambridge, MA, USA 
 NOAA, Milford Laboratory, Milford, CT, USA 
 NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA 
 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Quebec, Canada 
 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA 
 University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA 
10  Environmental Protection Agency Region 1, Boston, MA, USA 
11  Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Nova Scotia, Canada 
12  NOAA, Narragansett Laboratory, Narragansett, RI, USA 
13  Mook Sea Farm, Walpole, ME, USA 
14  Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, USA 
15  University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, MA, USA 
16  Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems, Portsmouth, NH, USA 
Publication year
2021
Publication date
2021
Publisher
University of California Press, Journals & Digital Publishing Division
ISSN
23251026
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2738664028
Copyright
© 2021 The Author(s). This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.