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Abstract
Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha−1 per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the “yield shock”, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.
The authors show that in recent decades compound climate extremes (i.e., hot, dry, and windy events) have increased and have reduced winter wheat yields in the U.S. Great Plains. The area most affected is the same area as that in 1930s Dust Bowl.
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1 Kansas State University, Department of Agronomy, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259)
2 Kansas State University, Kansas Climate Center, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259)
3 Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, USA (GRID:grid.264756.4) (ISNI:0000 0004 4687 2082)
4 USDA–ARS, Kansas State University, Hard Winter Wheat Genetics Research Unit, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259)
5 University of Rochester, Department of Computer Science, Rochester, USA (GRID:grid.16416.34) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 9174)
6 Kansas State University, Department of Computer Science, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259)
7 Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, College of Coastal Agriculture Sciences, Guangdong, China (GRID:grid.411846.e) (ISNI:0000 0001 0685 868X)
8 USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Southeast Area, Stoneville, USA (GRID:grid.463419.d) (ISNI:0000 0001 0946 3608)
9 Kansas State University, Department of Agronomy, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259); Kansas State University, Kansas Climate Center, Manhattan, USA (GRID:grid.36567.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 0737 1259)