Development of a new screening method for faster kinship analyses in mass disasters: a proof of concept study

Abstract

Kinship analysis in forensics is based on the calculation of the respective kinship indices. However, this calculation is only possible when the subject under identification has been associated with a particular population, whose allele frequency data is available for the particular set of STR markers used in the forensic practices. In the case of mass disasters, where a large number of individuals are to be identified, gathering the population frequency data and calculating the kinship indices can be an intricate process which requires a lot of time and huge resources. The new method of allele matching cut off score (AMCOS) developed in this study is based on the allele sharing approach. This approach simply refers to the number of shared alleles (1 or 2) between the two individuals; also known as identical by state (IBS) alleles which might have been inherited from a recent common ancestor in which the alleles are identical by descendent (IBD). In case of mass disasters, this method can be used to narrow down the number of pairs (dead and alive) to be matched for kinship without using the allele frequency data. The results obtained from this method could further be confirmed by LR based method, which uses the allele frequency data of the respective population of the pairs being tested for kinship. AMCOS method has been tested for its sensitivity, specificity and various other statistical parameters and has shown promising values for the same in various types of kinship analyses. This ascertains the authenticity and potential use of this method in forensic practice but only after its validation in a larger sample size. AMCOS method has been tested on siblings and grandparent-grandchildren by using autosomal and X-STR markers both, as the reference samples from the parents cannot always be available for the identification. The present study also compared the results shown by the autosomal and X-STR markers in siblings and grandparent-grandchildren identification, thereby suggesting the use of better set of markers on the basis of obtained values of various statistical parameters.