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Abstract
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
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1 Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Current affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of America; Current affiliation: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of America
2 LEPSE, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, France
3 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
4 Institute of Plant Production and Protection, Austral University of Chile , Valdivia, Chile
5 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) , Mexico DF, Mexico
6 KWS , Lille, France
7 Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET , Buenos Aires, Argentina
8 Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida—AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain; and ICREA, Catalonian Institution for Research and Advanced Studies , Barcelona, Spain
9 Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari , Sassari, Italy
10 Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University , Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Umeå, Sweden
11 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University , Stillwater, OK, United States of America
12 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America
13 National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA) , Colonia, Uruguay
14 Department of AGRIculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence , Florence, Italy
15 Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
16 Department of Agronomy, Purdue University , West Lafayette, IN, United States of America
17 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
18 Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege , Gembloux, Belgium
19 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany
20 IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba , Cordoba, Spain
21 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany
22 Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America
23 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany
24 CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
25 Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America
26 Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph , Guelph, Ontario, Canada
27 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic
28 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic; Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany
29 Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark
30 Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland
31 Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health , Neuherberg, Germany
32 CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain; Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha , Toledo, Spain
33 Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
34 CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain
35 Rothamsted Research , Harpenden AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom
36 Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany
37 Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University , Pullman, WA, United States of America
38 Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University , Wageningen, The Netherlands
39 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland
40 CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
41 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany; Current affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Organic Soil Sciences, University of Kassel , Kassel, Germany
42 College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
43 State Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
44 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
45 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark
46 CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia; Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
47 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
48 Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich , Freising, Germany