Abstract

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

Details

Title
Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
Author
Guarin, Jose Rafael 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Martre, Pierre 2 ; Ewert, Frank 3 ; Webber, Heidi 3 ; Dueri, Sibylle 2 ; Calderini, Daniel 4 ; Reynolds, Matthew 5 ; Molero, Gemma 6 ; Miralles, Daniel 7 ; Garcia, Guillermo 7 ; Slafer, Gustavo 8 ; Giunta, Francesco 9 ; Pequeno, Diego N L 5 ; Stella, Tommaso 3 ; Mukhtar, Ahmed 10   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Alderman, Phillip D 11 ; Basso, Bruno 12   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Berger, Andres G 13 ; Bindi, Marco 14 ; Bracho-Mujica, Gennady 15 ; Cammarano, Davide 16 ; Chen, Yi 17 ; Dumont, Benjamin 18 ; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi 19   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Fereres, Elias 20 ; Ferrise, Roberto 14 ; Gaiser, Thomas 21   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gao, Yujing 22 ; Garcia-Vila, Margarita 20   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gayler, Sebastian 23   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Hochman, Zvi 24   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Hoogenboom, Gerrit 25 ; Hunt, Leslie A 26 ; Kersebaum, Kurt C 27 ; Nendel, Claas 28   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Olesen, Jørgen E 29 ; Palosuo, Taru 30 ; Priesack, Eckart 31 ; Pullens, Johannes W M 29 ; Rodríguez, Alfredo 32 ; Rötter, Reimund P 33 ; Margarita Ruiz Ramos 34 ; Semenov, Mikhail A 35 ; Senapati, Nimai 35   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Siebert, Stefan 36   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Srivastava, Amit Kumar 21 ; Stöckle, Claudio 37 ; Supit, Iwan 38 ; Fulu Tao 39 ; Thorburn, Peter 24 ; Wang, Enli 40 ; Weber, Tobias Karl David 41 ; Xiao, Liujun 42 ; Zhang, Zhao 43   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zhao, Chuang 44   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zhao, Jin 45 ; Zhao, Zhigan 46 ; Zhu, Yan 47 ; Asseng, Senthold 48 

 Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Current affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of America; Current affiliation: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of America 
 LEPSE, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, France 
 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany 
 Institute of Plant Production and Protection, Austral University of Chile , Valdivia, Chile 
 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) , Mexico DF, Mexico 
 KWS , Lille, France 
 Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET , Buenos Aires, Argentina 
 Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida—AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain; and ICREA, Catalonian Institution for Research and Advanced Studies , Barcelona, Spain 
 Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari , Sassari, Italy 
10  Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University , Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Umeå, Sweden 
11  Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University , Stillwater, OK, United States of America 
12  Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI, United States of America 
13  National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA) , Colonia, Uruguay 
14  Department of AGRIculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence , Florence, Italy 
15  Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany 
16  Department of Agronomy, Purdue University , West Lafayette, IN, United States of America 
17  Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China 
18  Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege , Gembloux, Belgium 
19  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany 
20  IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba , Cordoba, Spain 
21  Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn , Bonn, Germany 
22  Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America 
23  Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany 
24  CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 
25  Former affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America; Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, United States of America 
26  Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph , Guelph, Ontario, Canada 
27  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic 
28  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research , Müncheberg, Germany; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic , Brno, Czech Republic; Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany 
29  Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark 
30  Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland 
31  Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health , Neuherberg, Germany 
32  CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain; Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha , Toledo, Spain 
33  Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany; Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany 
34  CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid , Madrid, Spain 
35  Rothamsted Research , Harpenden AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom 
36  Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen , Göttingen, Germany 
37  Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University , Pullman, WA, United States of America 
38  Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University , Wageningen, The Netherlands 
39  Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) , Helsinki, Finland 
40  CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia 
41  Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim , Stuttgart, Germany; Current affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Organic Soil Sciences, University of Kassel , Kassel, Germany 
42  College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China 
43  State Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China 
44  College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China 
45  College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark 
46  CSIRO Agriculture and Food , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia; Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China 
47  National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China 
48  Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich , Freising, Germany 
First page
124045
Publication year
2022
Publication date
Dec 2022
Publisher
IOP Publishing
e-ISSN
17489326
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2753718608
Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.