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© 2023. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the "License"). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Background

Estimated life expectancy is one of the most important factors in determining treatment options for prostate cancer (PCa) patients. However, clinicians have few effective prognostic tools to individually assess survival in patients with PCa.

Methods

We screened 283,252 patients diagnosed with PCa from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015, and randomly divided them into the training and validation groups. We used univariate and multivariate Cox analyses to identify independent prognostic factors and further established nomograms to predict 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) for PCa patients. The prediction performance of nomograms was tested and externally validated by Concordance index (C‐index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for internal validation. We further developed PCa prognostic scoring system based on the impact of available variables on survival.

Results

The variables age, race, marital status, TNM stage, surgery method, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, PSA value, and Gleason score identified as independent prognostic factors were included in the survival nomograms. The results of training (C‐index: OS = 0.776, CSS = 0.889; AUC value: OS = 0.772–0.802, CSS = 0.892–0.936) and external validation (C‐index: OS = 0.759, CSS = 0.875) indicated our nomograms had good performance in predicting 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐year OS and CSS prediction. Internal validation using the calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated the effectiveness of the prediction models. The prognostic scoring system was more effective than the AJCC staging system in predicting the survival of PCa patients, especially for OS.

Conclusion

The prognostic nomograms and prognostic scoring system have favorable performance in predicting OS and CSS of PCa patients. These individualized survival prediction tools may contribute to clinical decisions.

Details

Title
Nomograms and scoring system for forecasting overall and cancer‐specific survival of patients with prostate cancer
Author
Zhou, Yuan 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Lin, Changming 2 ; Zhu, Lian 1 ; Zhang, Rentao 1 ; Cheng, Lei 3 ; Chang, Yuanyuan 3 

 Department of Urology Surgery, The People's Hospital of Xuancheng City, Xuancheng, China, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China 
 Department of Urology Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of AnHui Medical University, Hefei, China 
 Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China 
Pages
2600-2613
Section
RESEARCH ARTICLES
Publication year
2023
Publication date
Feb 1, 2023
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
e-ISSN
20457634
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2777854721
Copyright
© 2023. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the "License"). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.