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© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD) remains mostly unclear. Yet, a valid biomarker is necessary to improve upon the early detection of this serious disorder. Patients with manifest BD display reduced volumes of the hippocampal subfields and amygdala nuclei. In this pre-registered analysis, we used structural MRI (n = 271, 7 sites) to compare volumes of hippocampus, amygdala and their subfields/nuclei between help-seeking subjects divided into risk groups for BD as estimated by BPSS-P, BARS and EPIbipolar. We performed between-group comparisons using linear mixed effects models for all three risk assessment tools. Additionally, we aimed to differentiate the risk groups using a linear support vector machine. We found no significant volume differences between the risk groups for all limbic structures during the main analysis. However, the SVM could still classify subjects at risk according to BPSS-P criteria with a balanced accuracy of 66.90% (95% CI 59.2–74.6) for 10-fold cross-validation and 61.9% (95% CI 52.0–71.9) for leave-one-site-out. Structural alterations of the hippocampus and amygdala may not be as pronounced in young people at risk; nonetheless, machine learning can predict the estimated risk for BD above chance. This suggests that neural changes may not merely be a consequence of BD and may have prognostic clinical value.

Details

Title
Machine Learning Prediction of Estimated Risk for Bipolar Disorders Using Hippocampal Subfield and Amygdala Nuclei Volumes
Author
Huth, Fabian 1 ; Tozzi, Leonardo 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Marxen, Michael 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Riedel, Philipp 1 ; Bröckel, Kyra 1 ; Martini, Julia 1 ; Berndt, Christina 1 ; Sauer, Cathrin 1 ; Vogelbacher, Christoph 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Jansen, Andreas 4 ; Kircher, Tilo 5   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Falkenberg, Irina 5 ; Thomas-Odenthal, Florian 5 ; Lambert, Martin 6 ; Kraft, Vivien 6 ; Leicht, Gregor 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Mulert, Christoph 7 ; Fallgatter, Andreas J 8 ; Ethofer, Thomas 8 ; Rau, Anne 8 ; Leopold, Karolina 9 ; Bechdolf, Andreas 9 ; Reif, Andreas 10 ; Matura, Silke 10 ; Biere, Silvia 10 ; Bermpohl, Felix 11 ; Fiebig, Jana 11 ; Stamm, Thomas 12 ; Correll, Christoph U 13   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Juckel, Georg 14 ; Flasbeck, Vera 14   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ritter, Philipp 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Bauer, Michael 1 ; Pfennig, Andrea 1 ; Mikolas, Pavol 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Carl Gustav Carus University Hospital, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany 
 Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA 
 Core-Facility Brainimaging, Faculty of Medicine, University of Marburg, 35037 Marburg, Germany; Translational Clinical Psychology, Philipps-University Marburg, 35037 Marburg, Germany; Center for Mind, Brain and Behavior (CMBB), University of Marburg and University Giessen, 35039 Marburg, Germany 
 Core-Facility Brainimaging, Faculty of Medicine, University of Marburg, 35037 Marburg, Germany; Center for Mind, Brain and Behavior (CMBB), University of Marburg and University Giessen, 35039 Marburg, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Marburg, 35037 Marburg, Germany 
 Center for Mind, Brain and Behavior (CMBB), University of Marburg and University Giessen, 35039 Marburg, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Marburg, 35037 Marburg, Germany 
 Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, 20251 Hamburg, Germany 
 Center for Mind, Brain and Behavior (CMBB), University of Marburg and University Giessen, 35039 Marburg, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, 20251 Hamburg, Germany; Centre for Psychiatry, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, 35390 Gießen, Germany 
 Department of Psychiatry, Tuebingen Center for Mental Health, University of Tuebingen, 72074 Tuebingen, Germany 
 Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatic Medicine, Vivantes Hospital Am Urban and Vivantes Hospital Im Friedrichshain, Charité-Universitätsmedizin, 10117 Berlin, Germany 
10  Department of Psychiatry, Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, Goethe University Frankfurt, University Hospital, 60323 Frankfurt, Germany 
11  Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Charité Campus Mitte, Charité University Medicine, 10117 Berlin, Germany 
12  Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Charité Campus Mitte, Charité University Medicine, 10117 Berlin, Germany; Department of Clinical Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Brandenburg Medical School Theodor Fontane, 16816 Neuruppin, Germany 
13  Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany; Department of Psychiatry, Northwell Health, The Zucker Hillside Hospital, Glen Oaks, New York, NY 11004, USA; Department of Psychiatry and Molecular Medicine, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Hempstead, NY 11549, USA 
14  Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Preventive Medicine, LWL University Hospital, Ruhr-University, 44791 Bochum, Germany 
First page
870
Publication year
2023
Publication date
2023
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
20763425
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2829712229
Copyright
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.