Global response of upper-level aviation turbulence from various sources to climate change

Abstract

Atmospheric turbulence at commercial aircraft cruising altitudes is a main threat to aviation safety worldwide. As the air transport industry expands and is continuously growing, investigating global response of aviation turbulence under climate change scenarios is required for preparing optimal and safe flying plans for the future. This study examines future frequencies of moderate-or-greater-intensity turbulence generated from various sources, viz., clear-air turbulence and mountain-wave turbulence that are concentrated in midlatitudes, and near-cloud turbulence that is concentrated in tropics and subtropics, using long-term climate model data of high-emissions scenario and historical condition. Here, we show that turbulence generated from all three sources is intensified with higher occurrences globally in changed climate compared to the historical period. Although previous studies have reported intensification of clear-air turbulence in changing climate, implying bumpier flights in the future, we show that intensification of mountain-wave turbulence and near-cloud turbulence can also be expected with changing climate.