Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

Abstract

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved.

Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.