Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

Abstract

The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.

Electric vehicle sales goals alone will not achieve light duty vehicle emissions targets. Other actions including decarbonizing the electric grid, mode shifting, vehicle downsizing, reducing travel demand, and accelerating fleet turnover, are needed.