Full text

Turn on search term navigation

© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

For time series forecasting, multivariate grey models are excellent at handling incomplete or vague information. The GM(1, N) model represents this group of models and has been widely used in various fields. However, constructing a meaningful GM(1, N) model is challenging due to its more complex structure compared to the construction of the univariate grey model GM(1, 1). Typically, fitting and prediction errors of GM(1, N) are not ideal in practical applications, which limits the application of the model. This study presents the neural ordinary differential equation multivariate grey model (NMGM), a new multivariate grey model that aims to enhance the precision of multivariate grey models. NMGM employs a novel whitening equation with neural ordinary differential equations, showcasing higher predictive accuracy and broader applicability than previous models. It can more effectively learn features from various data samples. In experimental validation, our novel model is first used to predict China’s per capita energy consumption, and it performed best in both the test and validation sets, with mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of 0.2537% and 0.7381%, respectively. The optimal results for the compared models are 0.5298% and 1.106%. Then, our model predicts China’s total renewable energy with lower mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of 0.9566% and 0.7896% for the test and validation sets, respectively. The leading outcomes for the competing models are 1.0188% and 1.1493%. The outcomes demonstrate that this novel model exhibits a higher performance than other models.

Details

Title
Neural Multivariate Grey Model and Its Applications
Author
Li, Qianyang  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zhang, Xingjun
First page
1219
Publication year
2024
Publication date
2024
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
20763417
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2923929406
Copyright
© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.