Severe reduction in spawning days and larval abundance of walleye pollock under future warming in the western East/Japan Sea

Abstract

The collapse of walleye pollock catch in the Korean fishing region during the late 1980s remains unresolved despite enormous efforts to recover its stock. To investigate the future fate of walleye pollock in the western East/Japan Sea (EJS) in the late 21st century, we implemented a dynamical downscaling approach by developing high-resolution regional ocean climate models (1/20°) with the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) global climate models. We analyzed the changes in the spawning days and larval distribution of walleye pollock in the western EJS. Under the SSP5–8.5 global warming scenario, the suitable spawning period ratio of walleye pollock was drastically reduced by 76%. The severe reduction in spawning days in the western EJS was mainly attributed to ocean warming caused by a decrease in atmospheric surface cooling. Moreover, our particle tracking experiment showed substantial loss of eggsand larvae south of 38° N. Our study projected a drastic collapse of walleye pollock in the western EJS and proposed a variety of collapse patterns based on local circulation under future warming conditions. These findings can help the local fishing industry adapt and assist neighboring governments in planning future fisheries management strategies.