Longitudinal blood glucose level and increased silent myocardial infarction: a pooled analysis of four cohort studies

Abstract

Background

Fasting glucose (FG) demonstrates dynamic fluctuations over time and is associated with cardiovascular outcomes, yet current research is limited by small sample sizes and relies solely on baseline glycemic levels. Our research aims to investigate the longitudinal association between FG and silent myocardial infarction (SMI) and also delves into the nuanced aspect of dose response in a large pooled dataset of four cohort studies.

Methods

We analyzed data from 24,732 individuals from four prospective cohort studies who were free of myocardial infarction history at baseline. We calculated average FG and intra-individual FG variability (coefficient of variation), while SMI cases were identified using 12-lead ECG exams with the Minnesota codes and medical history. FG was measured for each subject during the study’s follow-up period. We applied a Cox regression model with time-dependent variables to assess the association between FG and SMI with adjustment for age, gender, race, Study, smoking, longitudinal BMI, low-density lipoprotein level, blood pressure, and serum creatinine.

Results

The average mean age of the study population was 60.5 (sd: 10.3) years with median fasting glucose of 97.3 mg/dL at baseline. During an average of 9 years of follow-up, 357 SMI events were observed (incidence rate, 1.3 per 1000 person-years). The association between FG and SMI was linear and each 25 mg/dL increment in FG was associated with a 15% increase in the risk of SMI. This association remained significant after adjusting for the use of lipid-lowering medication, antihypertensive medication, antidiabetic medication, and insulin treatment (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.16). Higher average FG (HR per 25 mg/dL increase: 1.17, 95% CI 1.08–1.26) and variability of FG (HR per 1 sd increase: 1.23, 95% CI 1.12–1.34) over visits were also correlated with increased SMI risk.

Conclusions

Higher longitudinal FG and larger intra-individual variability in FG over time were associated in a dose–response manner with a higher SMI risk. These findings support the significance of routine cardiac screening for subjects with elevated FG, with and without diabetes.