Predicting severe intraventricular hemorrhage or early death using machine learning algorithms in VLBWI of the Korean Neonatal Network Database

Abstract

Severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in premature infants can lead to serious neurological complications. This retrospective cohort study used the Korean Neonatal Network (KNN) dataset to develop prediction models for severe IVH or early death in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWIs) using machine-learning algorithms. The study included VLBWIs registered in the KNN database. The outcome was the diagnosis of IVH Grades 3–4 or death within one week of birth. Predictors were categorized into three groups based on their observed stage during the perinatal period. The dataset was divided into derivation and validation sets at an 8:2 ratio. Models were built using Logistic Regression with Ridge Regulation (LR), Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB). Stage 1 models, based on predictors observed before birth, exhibited similar performance. Stage 2 models, based on predictors observed up to one hour after birth, showed improved performance in all models compared to Stage 1 models. Stage 3 models, based on predictors observed up to one week after birth, showed the best performance, particularly in the XGB model. Its integration into treatment and management protocols can potentially reduce the incidence of permanent brain injury caused by IVH during the early stages of birth.