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Abstract
Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.
Loss of vegetation carbon from biodiversity loss could rival emissions from other sources such as land-use change. This creates a feedback where climate change increases biodiversity loss, leading to greater emissions and more climate change.
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1 U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA (GRID:grid.2865.9) (ISNI:0000000121546924); University of Massachusetts, Department of Environmental Conservation, Amherst, USA (GRID:grid.266683.f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2166 5835)
2 University of Minnesota, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Saint Paul, USA (GRID:grid.17635.36) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8657)
3 Université de Montréal, Département de Sciences Biologiques, Montréal, Canada (GRID:grid.14848.31) (ISNI:0000 0001 2104 2136)
4 Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Rome, Italy (GRID:grid.7841.a)
5 Vizzuality, Madrid, Spain (GRID:grid.439128.5)
6 Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, USA (GRID:grid.17635.36) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8657)
7 USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Amherst, USA (GRID:grid.497400.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0612 8726)
8 U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, USA (GRID:grid.2865.9) (ISNI:0000000121546924)
9 University of Massachusetts, Department of Environmental Conservation, Amherst, USA (GRID:grid.266683.f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2166 5835); U.S. Geological Survey Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Amherst, USA (GRID:grid.266683.f)
10 the University of Tokyo, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan (GRID:grid.26999.3d) (ISNI:0000 0001 2169 1048)
11 Columbia University/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA (GRID:grid.419078.3) (ISNI:0000 0001 2284 9855)
12 CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australia (GRID:grid.419078.3) (ISNI:0000 0000 9917 4633)




