Very short period quantitative precipitation forecasting

Abstract

This article presents an overview of the state of the art of very short period quantitative precipitation forecasting. The authors draw primarily on work presented during the sessions on ‘Nowcasting’ held at the 6th Symposium on the Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, in Melbourne, Australia, from 2nd to 4th February 2004, and also include some other work in order to give a more complete picture of the field. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

References Boudevillain B, Andrieu H, Chaumerliac N. 2004. Evaluation of a VIL-based very-short term rainfall forecasting model with actual radar data. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Bowler N, Pierce CE, Seed A. 2004. A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Browning KA, Collier CG. 1989. Nowcasting of precipitation systems. Reviews of Geophysics 27: 345–370. Collier CG. 2004. On the impact of assimilating Doppler radar wind data into an operational numerical weather prediction model. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Cote J, Gravel S, Methot A, Roch M, Staniforth A. 1998. The operational CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: design considerations and formulation. Monthly Weather Review 126: 1373–1395. Ebert E, Seed A. 2004. Use of radar estimates to evaluate mesoscale model forecasts of convective rainfall. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Fox NI, Wikle CK. 2004. Providing distributed forecasts of precipitation using a Bayesian nowcast scheme. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Germann U, Zawadzki I. 2002. Scale dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part I: description of the methodology. Monthly Weather Review 130: 2859–2873. Germann U, Zawadzki I. 2004. Scale dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part II: Probability forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology 43: 74–89. Golding BW. 1998. Nimrod: a system for generating automated very short range forecasts. Meteorological Applications 5: 1–16. Golding BW. 2000. Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. Journal of Hydrology 239: 286–305. Gray W, Larsen H, Seed A. 2004. Nowcasting for New Zealand. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Keenan T, Joe P, Wilson J, Collier C, Golding B, Burgess D, May P, Pierce C, Bally J, Crook A, Seed A, Sills D, Berry L, Potts R, Bell I, Fox N, Ebert E, Eilts M, O'Laughlin K, Webb R, Carbone R, Browning K, Roberts R, Mueller C. 2003. The Sydney 2000 world weather research programme forecast demonstration project: overview and current status. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1041–1054. Lin C, Vasiæ S, Zawadzki I, Turner B. 2004. Precipitation forecast based on numerical weather prediction models and radar nowcasts. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Ligda MG. 1953. The horizontal motion of small precipitation areas as observed by radar. Technical Report 21. Department of Meteorology, M.I.T: Cambridge, Massachusetts, 60. Moszkowicz S. 2004. Verification of NWP model rain evolution using radar data and its application to the rainfall nowcasting. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Mueller C, Saxen T, Roberts R, Wilson J, Betancourt T, Dettling S, Oien N, Yee J. 2003. NCAR auto nowcast system. Weather and Forecasting 18: 545–561. Pierce CE, Collier CG, Hardaker PJ, Haggett CM. 2000. GANDOLF: a system for generating automated nowcasts of convective precipitation. Meteorological Applications 8: 341–360. Pierce C, Bowler N, Seed A, Jones A, Jones D, Moore R. 2004a. Use of a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme for fluvial flood forecasting and warning. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Pierce CE, Ebert E, Seed AW, Sleigh M, Collier CG, Fox NI, Donaldson N, Wilson JW, Roberts R, Mueller CK. 2004b. The nowcasting of precipitation during Sydney 2000: an appraisal of the QPF algorithms. Weather and Forecasting 19: 7–21. Schmid W, Mecklenberg S, Joss J. 2002. Short-term forecasts of heavy rainfall. Water Science and Technology 45: 121–125. Seed AW. 2003. A dynamic and spatial scaling approach to advection forecasting. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42: 381–388. Terada M, Kataoka K, Ikebuchi S, Nakakita E, Oishi S, Fujita A, Takada N. 2004. The development of short-term rainfall prediction system in mountainous region by the combination of extrapolation model and meso-scale atmospheric model. In Sixth International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar, Melbourne, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/old_events/hawr6_papers.html [Accessed 14 January 2005]. Weckwerth TM, Parsons DB, Koch SE, Moore JA, Lemone MA, Demoz BB, Flamant C, Geerts B, Wang J, Feltz WF. 2004. An overview of the international H2O project (IHOP 2002) and some preliminary highlights. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85: 253–277. Wilson JW, Crook NA, Mueller CK, Sun J, Dixon M. 1998. Nowcasting thunderstorms: a status report. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 2079–2099.