Prediction of the future number of fall-related emergency medical services calls in older individuals

Abstract

Background

Falls among older individuals contribute significantly to the rise in ambulance transport use. To recognize the importance of future countermeasures, we estimated the projected number and percentage of fall-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls.

Methods

We examined the sex, age group, and location of falls among patients aged ≥ 65 years who contacted emergency services in Sapporo City from 2013 to 2021. Annual fall-related calls per population subgroup were calculated, and trends were analyzed. Four models were used to estimate the future number of fall-related calls from the 2025–2060 projected population: (1) based on the 2022 data, estimates from the 2013–2022 data using (2) Poisson progression, (3) neural network, (4) estimates from the 2013–2019 data using neural network. The number of all EMS calls was also determined using the same method to obtain the ratio of all EMS calls.

Results

During 2013–2022, 70,262 fall-related calls were made for those aged ≥ 65 years. The rate was higher indoors among females and outdoor among males in most age groups and generally increased with age. After adjusting for age, the rate increased by year. Future estimates of the number of fall calls are approximately double the number in 2022 in 2040 and three times in 2060, with falls accounting for approximately 11% and 13% of all EMS calls in 2040 and 2060, respectively.

Conclusion

The number of fall-related EMS calls among older people is expected to increase in the future, and the percentage of EMS calls will also increase; therefore, countermeasures are urgently needed.