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Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on a global scale; however, the cycling of RSV subtypes in the pre- and post-pandemic period remains poorly understood. Here, we used a two subtype RSV model supplemented with epidemiological data to study the impact of NPIs on the two circulating subtypes, RSV-A and RSV-B. The model is calibrated to historic RSV subtype data from the United Kingdom and Finland and predicts a tendency for RSV-A dominance over RSV-B immediately following the implementation of NPIs. Using a global genetic dataset, we confirm that RSV-A has prevailed over RSV-B in the post-pandemic period, consistent with a higher R0 for RSV-A. With new RSV infant monoclonals and maternal and elderly vaccines becoming widely available, these results may have important implications for understanding intervention effectiveness in the context of disrupted subtype dynamics.
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Details
1 Princeton University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, USA (GRID:grid.16750.35) (ISNI:0000 0001 2097 5006)
2 National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, USA (GRID:grid.94365.3d) (ISNI:0000 0001 2297 5165)
3 Brown University, School of Public Health, Providence, USA (GRID:grid.40263.33) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 9094)
4 Centre de Biologie Nord, Institut des Agents Infectieux, Laboratoire de Virologie, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Hôpital de la Croix-Rousse, Lyon, France (GRID:grid.413306.3) (ISNI:0000 0004 4685 6736)