Spatio-temporal differentiation and types of drivers of non-grain of arable land in food production and marketing balance areas

Abstract

为探究粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化率时空分异，识别其驱动类型，本研究采用空间自相关模型对2005—2020年山西省耕地非粮化率时空演变特征进行分析，利用随机森林模型分析耕地非粮化率影响因素，利用主成分分析法和 K-Means聚类法探究山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型。结果表明：从时间上看，耕地非粮化率由2005年的50.21%下降到2020年的40.05%，呈“W”型波动，超过山西省粮食安全阈值 11.45个百分点；从空间上看，耕地非粮化率差异显著，呈现西北高、东南低的分布格局；从空间集聚类型上看，2005—2020年山西省耕地非粮化率全局莫兰指数先下降后上升，空间集聚效应加强，主要以高高集聚和低低集聚为主。土地生产率、年降水量、各县到省会中心的距离对耕地非粮化率变化起主要作用，且均与耕地非粮化率呈负相关。山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型主要分为资源禀赋型、交通便利型、农业支持型和经济作物增长型。识别山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型，制定针对性的管控措施，对于保护农业发展和粮食安全具有重要的理论和现实意义。

The study aimed in exploring the spatial and temporal variations in the rate of non-grain of arable land in food production and marketing balance zones and identifying the types of drivers，to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of food security in food production and marketing balance zones. The spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of arable land non-grain rate in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2020，the random forest model was used to analyze the influencing factors of the arable land non-grain rate，and the principal component analysis and K-Means clustering method were used to explore the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province. The results of the study show that：temporally，the rate of non-grain arable land decreased from 50.21% in 2005 to 40.05% in 2020 with a“W”- shaped fluctuation，exceeding the Shanxi food security threshold by 11.45 percentage points. The rate of non-grain cultivation of arable land varied significantly across space，with a distribution pattern“high in the north-west and low in the south-east”. In terms of spatial agglomeration，the global Moran's index of the non-grain rate of arable land in Shanxi Province declined and then increased from 2005 to 2020，and the effect of spatial agglomeration was strengthened with high-high and low-low agglomerations primarily. Land productivity，annual precipitation，and the distance between each district to the provincial capital center played major roles in changes in the rate of non-grain of arable land，showing a negative correlation. In Shanxi Province，there are four types of arable land non-grain drives：resource endowment，transport convenience，agricultural support，and cash crop growth. Identifying the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province and developing targeted control measures are critical for the protection of agricultural development and food security.