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Abstract
Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be more frequent, long-lasting, and intense in the mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with severe increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the low emissions scenario of RCP2.6, the frequency of heatwaves doubles over most of the region. A three- to tenfold rise in population exposure to heatwave days is projected over Central and South America, with climate change playing a dominant role in driving these changes. Results show that following the low emission pathway would reduce 57% and 50% of heatwave exposure for Central and South American regions respectively, highlighting the need to control anthropogenic emissions and implement sustainable practices.
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1 The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Institute for the Environment, Chapel Hill, USA (GRID:grid.10698.36) (ISNI:0000 0001 2248 3208); National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, MoES, Noida, India (GRID:grid.464960.9) (ISNI:0000 0001 2220 6577)
2 The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Institute for the Environment, Chapel Hill, USA (GRID:grid.10698.36) (ISNI:0000 0001 2248 3208)
3 Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Philadelphia, USA (GRID:grid.10698.36)
4 University of California, Department of City and Regional Planning and Institute for Transportation Studies, Berkeley, USA (GRID:grid.47840.3f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2181 7878)
5 Federal University of Minas Gerais, Observatory for Urban Health in Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Brazil (GRID:grid.8430.f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2181 4888)
6 University of California, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Berkeley, USA (GRID:grid.468726.9) (ISNI:0000 0004 0486 2046)
7 University of Michigan School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Ann Arbor, USA (GRID:grid.214458.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 7347)
8 Queen’s University, Centre for Public Health, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Belfast, UK (GRID:grid.4777.3) (ISNI:0000 0004 0374 7521)
9 University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Department of Preventive Medicine, Sao Paulo, Brazil (GRID:grid.11899.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 0722)
10 University of California, Department of City and Regional Planning and Institute for Transportation Studies, Berkeley, USA (GRID:grid.47840.3f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2181 7878); Nanjing University, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing, China (GRID:grid.41156.37) (ISNI:0000 0001 2314 964X)
11 Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA (GRID:grid.41156.37)