A mechanistic study on the spatial and temporal evolution of the coordination between aviation industry and tourism intensity in Macao under the PAVR model

Abstract

Since the reunification of Macao, both the tourism and aviation industries have experienced rapid growth, developing a mutually beneficial relationship that drives the city’s economic progress. The aviation industry, characterized by its safety, speed, comfort, and cost-effectiveness, has become the preferred mode of transportation for most tourists, thus serving as a crucial pillar for the tourism sector’s expansion. This study aims to explore the dynamic relationship between Macao’s aviation industry and tourism intensity using a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. The PVAR model, an extension of the traditional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, incorporates both spatial and temporal dimensions, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of cross-sectional data over time. The results reveal a significant, positive feedback loop between the two sectors, where advancements in aviation infrastructure enhance tourist accessibility and, in turn, stimulate further growth in the aviation industry. This study offers valuable insights into the synchronized evolution of these industries in Macao and underscores the importance of strategic planning to sustain their harmonious development. The originality of this research lies in its application of the PVAR model to examine the interplay between tourism and aviation in a unique, rapidly developing urban context, providing a scientific basis for future policy decisions.