Development of a neoadjuvant chemotherapy efficacy prediction model for nasopharyngeal carcinoma integrating magnetic resonance radiomics and pathomics: a multi-center retrospective study

Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for assessing the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) by integrating radiomics and pathomics features using a particle swarm optimization-supported support vector machine (PSO-SVM).

Methods

A retrospective multi-center study was conducted, which included 389 NPC patients who received NACT from three institutions. Radiomics features were extracted from magnetic resonance imaging scans, while pathomics features were derived from histopathological images. A total of 2,667 radiomics features and 254 pathomics features were initially extracted. Feature selection involved intra-class correlation coefficient evaluation, Mann-Whitney U test, Spearman correlation analysis, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. The PSO-SVM model was constructed and validated using 10-fold cross-validation on the training set and further evaluated using an external validation set. Model performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Eight significant predictive features (five radiomics and three pathomics) were identified. The PSO-SVM radiopathomics model achieved superior performance compared to models based solely on radiomics or pathomics features. The AUCs for the PSO-SVM radiopathomics model were 0.917 (95% CI: 0.887–0.948) in internal validation and 0.814 (95% CI: 0.742–0.887) in external validation. Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis showed that the PSO-SVM radiopathomics model provided higher clinical net benefit over a wider range of risk thresholds compared to other models.

Conclusion

The PSO-SVM radiopathomics model effectively integrates radiomics and pathomics features, offering enhanced predictive accuracy and clinical utility for assessing NACT efficacy in NPC. The multi-center approach and robust validation underscore its potential for personalized treatment planning, supporting improved clinical decision-making for NPC patients.