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© 2024 Sanchez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

In the United States, requirements for flood insurance, development restrictions, and federal buyout program eligibility rely on regulatory designation of hazardous zones, i.e., inside or outside the 100-year floodplain. Extensive research has investigated floodplain development patterns across different geographies, times, and scales, yet the impacts, and potential unintended consequences, of floodplain policies beyond their boundaries have not been empirically examined. We posit that the regulatory 100-year floodplain presents a “safe development paradox”, whereby attempts to reduce flood risk paradoxically intensifies it by promoting development in and near flood-prone areas. We conducted the first comprehensive national assessment of historical and future development patterns related to the regulatory 100-year floodplain, examining the spatial distribution of developed land within increasingly distant 250-m zones from floodplain boundaries. We found a disproportionate concentration of developed land (24% or 89,080 km2 of developed land by 2019) in zones immediately adjacent to the floodplain, a trend observed at the national, state, and county levels. Nationwide projections suggest that approximately 22% of all anticipated growth from 2020 to 2060 is likely to occur within 250 m from the 100-year floodplain, equivalent to 6,900 km2 of new development (SD = 2,842 km2). Understanding and anticipating the influence of flood management policies on current and future land use decisions is crucial for effective planning and mitigation strategies.

Details

Title
The safe development paradox of the United States regulatory floodplain
Author
Sanchez, Georgina M  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Lawrimore, Margaret A  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Petrasova, Anna  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Vogler, John B  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Collins, Elyssa L; Petras, Vaclav; Harper, Truffaut; Butzler, Emma J; Meentemeyer, Ross K
First page
e0311718
Section
Research Article
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Dec 2024
Publisher
Public Library of Science
e-ISSN
19326203
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3150493760
Copyright
© 2024 Sanchez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.