How does urbanisation affect agricultural economic resilience? Evidence from China

Abstract

As an important path to breaking the urban-rural dual system and promoting agricultural modernisation in China, the process of urbanisation might have a strong influence on promoting agricultural economic resilience (AER). Using panel data from provincial-level administrative regions of China’s mainland, we constructed a novel indicator system to measure AER, and employ the system generalised method of moments model to examine the impact of urbanisation on AER and the moderating roles of land transfer and heterogeneous human capital. Our study yielded three notable findings. First, the urbanisation process can significantly enhance AER. This finding remained robust after conducting multiple robustness tests and addressing endogeneity using the instrumental variable method. Second, the influencing mechanism analysis results indicated that land transfer and human capital had significant moderating roles, and the level of land transfer and educational improvement can enhance the positive impact of urbanisation on AER, while the migratory human capital weakened this positive effect. Third, the heterogeneity analysis revealed regional differences in the impact of urbanisation on AER, demonstrating that the promotional effect of urbanisation was much greater in the major grain-producing areas. Our study offers a new perspective and evidence for researchers and policymakers investigating how to enhance AER.