Dynamic forest fire risk evaluation in Poland

Abstract

The weather conditions determine the dynamic forest fire risk. In Poland, the dynamic forest fire risk is calculated using a method elaborated at the Forest Research Institute. The forest fire risk degree (4-level scale) is calculated every day at 9:00 am and at 1:00 pm during the fire season (1.03 till 30.09) for 60 prognostic zones selected on the basis of stand and climatic conditions. 97% of all annual forest fires occur during the fire season. Surface fires are a significant part of the fires (90%) and occur in forest stands where pine is the dominant species. The purpose of the research was to prepare a new method of forecasting forest fire risk, which would enable a more precise method of evaluation of the risk of an outbreak of fire in relation to the existing and forecast meteorological conditions in forests. The results obtained during testing of this method indicate a high accuracy in forecasting fire risk and a satisfactory precision of formulae for calculating moisture content of pine litter.

The assumptions of the new method included:

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  possibility of determining the actual risk of fire for the given area, being the average for all measurement points located on the terrain equally those in which the moisture content measurement of litter has not been performed,

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  possibility of forecasting the risk of forest fire for the afternoon in the morning hours of the given day,

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  possibility of forecasting fire risk for the following day,

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  forecasting moisture content of litter for the afternoon and of the given day and for the following day,

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  drawing up a method enabling limitation of operational costs of fire prevention system.