Budget Performance and Human Capital Development of Relevant Sectors in Nigeria

Abstract

The disparity between budget and human capital development over the years questions the performance of budget in Nigeria. Budget performance measures are expected to be positive if human capital development will improve in any nation. Therefore, the study investigated the effect of budget performance on human capital development in Nigeria. The study employed descriptive longitudinal research design and inferential statistics. Secondary data were extracted from annual budget and human development reports. The population for this study comprised all the twentyfour (24) federal Ministries in Nigeria. A sample size of 4 ministries (education, health, agriculture and rural development, science and technology) were purposively selected. Data collected were analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results of the short run effect of budget performance on human capital development showed that budget effectiveness (t = 4.1593, P < 0.01), budget efficiency (t = 4.3163, P < 0.01), inflation rate (t = -2.2254, P < 0.05) all had positive and significant effect on human capital development. The long run result revealed that budget effectiveness (t = 4.6777, P < 0.01), budget efficiency (t = 3.6078, p < 0.05), budget discipline (t = 2.6789, P < 0.05) and debt burden (t = 2.1050, p < 0.1) had positive and significant effect on human capital development. The study concluded that budget performance has significant effect on human capital development.

Headnote

Abstract: The disparity between budget and human capital development over the years questions the performance of budget in Nigeria. Budget performance measures are expected to be positive if human capital development will improve in any nation. Therefore, the study investigated the effect of budget performance on human capital development in Nigeria. The study employed descriptive longitudinal research design and inferential statistics. Secondary data were extracted from annual budget and human development reports. The population for this study comprised all the twentyfour (24) federal Ministries in Nigeria. A sample size of 4 ministries (education, health, agriculture and rural development, science and technology) were purposively selected. Data collected were analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results of the short run effect of budget performance on human capital development showed that budget effectiveness (t = 4.1593, P < 0.01), budget efficiency (t = 4.3163, P < 0.01), inflation rate (t = -2.2254, P < 0.05) all had positive and significant effect on human capital development. The long run result revealed that budget effectiveness (t = 4.6777, P < 0.01), budget efficiency (t = 3.6078, p < 0.05), budget discipline (t = 2.6789, P < 0.05) and debt burden (t = 2.1050, p < 0.1) had positive and significant effect on human capital development. The study concluded that budget performance has significant effect on human capital development.

Keywords: Budget Performance; Budget Effectiveness ; Budget Efficiency; Budget Discipline; Human Capital Development.

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Introduction

Budget performance involves the management of government spending (Gorski and Parkitna, 2017), to achieve set goals and objectives. Budget performance practices involve the use of operational efficiency and technical efficiency measures in the way the budget is prepared and administered on one hand, and in the way the budget is managed on the other hand. The absence of these practices is seen in the way the budget items are underfunded and captured in almost all the Nigerian budgets over the time. Spending ministries have been making attempts to controls some of the budget items in order to give relevance to main areas of concerns, and having the utmost belief and assurance that they will be funded. Budget performance practices are therefore used for measuring both operational and technical performance of a budget which signify the way the budget has been designed, operated and handled, and denoted as budget effectiveness, budget efficiency and budget discipline, to achieve human capital development.

Currently, the well-being of a society is perceived from the standpoint of the impact that increased national income may have on the people and in enhancing their quality of life. There is consensus that despite a country having a high income, if its management is not properly channelled, and there is a lack of equitable distribution, it may not achieve human development (Faleti, Hakeem and Reuben, 2014). To this effect, sound budget performance is capable of achieving the necessary budgetary outcomes which are currently the elements of human capital development in countries.

It has been observed that improvements in effectiveness and efficiency of budget of developing countries like Nigeria can provide high benefits for them. Egbide and Agbude (2012) asserted that for any budget to be considered and qualified as a sound policy instrument, it must achieve the policy objectives of efficiency, effectiveness and discipline, otherwise, it may not bring about the expected socio-economic development. Contrarily, the effectiveness, efficiency and utmost discipline as crucial components of budget performance may be lacking in the Nigerian budgeting giving the state of the development in the country which explains why the position of Nigeria in human capital development ranking of United Nation Development Program has continued to be low from 2003 till date. In 2019, Human Development Index shows that Nigeria was ranked 157th out of 188 countries in the world. The report also depicts that some African countries such as South Africa was ranked 113th, Cape Verde was ranked 125th and Ghana was ranked 140th, all seem to do better than Nigeria in terms of human capital development (Human Development Report, 2019). This position also has raised the concerns on whether budget performs its developmental roles that can influence achieving human capital development and questioned the main ingredients of budget performance in terms of its effectiveness, efficiency and discipline in handling scarce resources in the country.

Most studies on budget performance were conducted using qualitative measures to address the performance of the budget. Furthermore, study such as Ezeagba and Adigwe (2015) attempted to study the factors responsible for the low level of implementation of the budget, Arogundade and Olaoye (2016) examined the effect of both budgeted and actual revenue and expenditure on government budget performance, Onyiah, Ezeamama, Ugwu and Mgbodile (2016) investigated the effect of resource management, control reforms and the level of productivity and efficiency and personnel costs on budget implementation and Ilemona and Sunday (2018) conducted an investigation on effect of budget implementation on economic growth. The studies however ignored the aspects of budget performance process which require the application of principles of budget effectiveness, budget efficiency and budget discipline to ensure adequate revenue utilisation and expenditure management that could produce effects on human capital development.

However, this study focused on the quantitative measures of budget performance that provided the opportunity to link the monetary values to the desired goals and test for their effects on a single index which explains the phenomenon generally. Notably, this study delved into the nexus between budget performance and human capital development by concentrating on the role of budget performance practices can play in boosting or improving human capital development in Nigeria.

Literature Review

Okpala (2014) examined the relationship between Medium Term Expenditure Framework and budget effectiveness in Nigeria. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit information from the respondents who consisted the senior staff of accounting, internal audit and finance departments in the federal ministry of finance, fiscal responsibility commission and CBN. The result revealed that the MTEF has positive and significant relationship with budget process, aggregate discipline, sectoral in Nigeria. It was concluded that the MTEF has positive influence on the budget effectiveness.

Solihin, Mursinto and Sugilarti (2017) investigated the effectiveness and efficiency of government expenditure on education and its effect on education outcomes. The share of government expenditures is presumed to affect the educational outcomes when they are channelled in an effective and efficient ways. The problem of lack of progress in educational outcomes as shown by the education index suggests that the budget share does not translate to improvement in education. Ironically, the regions with meagre or small share of education budget achieved more in terms of education outcome than the regions that gave high share of budget to education. The effect of spending on education budget is indirect on education index. The influence of the education expenditure is not significant to bring about improvement on education index.

Olaoye and Ogunmakin (2014) examined the relationship between budgetary control and performance. The study focused on five parastatals in Osun state, which included the Agricultural Corporation, Broadcasting Corporation, College of Education, Property Development Corporation and Water Corporation. Data on revenue and expenditure estimates and actual were sourced for a period of five years, covering 2007 to 2011. The person's productmoment correlation was to establish a relationship. The result recorded strong and weak negative relationship between the revenue and expenditure of all the corporations over the time frame.

Arogundade and Olaoye (2016) analysed the effect of both budgeted and actual revenue and expenditure on government budget performance. The study collected secondary data of 6 southwest states in Nigeria for a period of 15 years ranging from 2000 to 2014. The data analysis techniques employed pooled OLS panel analysis, fixed effect and random effect methods. The findings showed that actual revenue and actual expenditure and budgeted revenue had a positive effect on government budget performance. It, however, showed that budgeted expenditure has no impact on government budget performance.

Osoro et al (2016) aimed at determining the effect of revenue collection on the relationship between deficit budget financing and operational performance in Kenya. The study employed a descriptive case research design and analysed the data using a percentile and regression analysis method. They found that single business permit revenue, land rate revenue, property rates revenue, liquor rates revenue has a significant influence on the relationship between budget deficit financing and operational performance of Kiisi county in Kenya.

Isaboke and Josphat (2016) assessed the influence of the budget process on the financial performance of the county government of Nakuru in Kenya. The study sample included 80 staff members of the county government. Responses were elicited through the administration of a structured questionnaire. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were employed. It was established from the result that financial capacity had a significant positive relationship with financial performance.

Egbide and Agbude (2013) compared the adherence to budgetary estimate during military and civilian regimes. The sample frames are divided into two periods. The first period of eight years from 1991-1998 was used for used for the military's regime, and the second period spanning from 1999-2006 was used in obtaining data for civilian regime. Data on a yearly basis were obtained from secondary sources. The data were analysed with the aid of simple variances, percentages and some descriptive statistics. From the result, the democratic regime has the higher budgetary discipline. The comparison showed that difference in the budgetary discipline between the democratic regime and military regime is not statistically significant. The study therefore, recommend that the budget should be accorded the same seriousness like other laws made by the national assembly since it is a legal document too. Also, the objectives of the budget should be enforced strictly for purpose for which they enacted.

Oyedele (2014) examined the performance of budget under the civilian government at present. The study found that the performance of the budget has been marred by the frequent disagreement between the executive and legislature which has affected the implementation of the budget. The study recommends that the public budgeting should be re-organised to make it an instrument for development engineering.

Ajibolade and Collins (2017) carried out an examination into budgeting and public fund management in Nigeria with an emphasis on government budgeting. The study specifically examined the state of budgeting and public funds management in Nigeria and the extent to which budgetary mechanisms have been employed to manage the nation. Secondary data on time series basis from 2000-2015 were collected from different archival sources, which were then analysed with the aid of a simple regression estimation technique. The study established that the national budget is defective and has not been capable of achieving its objectives.

Ramdany and Yadiati (2018) examined the impact of internal control, good governance and accounting information on budget discipline. Government activities transformed wishes to reality, but the process of planning, budget implementation and accountability requires serious discipline for them to be becomes achievable where government uses its instruments. The study found that the impact of internal control and good governance to be positively weak on budget discipline. The quality of accounting information on budget discipline was negative but weak. The effect of accounting information is weak due to lack of ability to make decision making sound which is largely attributed to its distorted nature often time. Also, the budget absorption stood to disrupt the budget discipline as it affected budget implementation from making significant impact on the need of achieving good governance.

Mpaata et al. (2019) examined the influence of local government budget practices on collective service delivery in the local governments of the Mayugc district in Uganda. In their study, the effect of financial reporting practices, budgetary aspects of financial control, risk management, information sharing and expenditure management was focused on. The study used mainly descriptive statistics with the support of correlation and regression analyses being performed. Their findings showed a significant positive relationship between financial control, expenditure management, information sharing and financial reporting practice and collective service delivery. On the other hand, it reported an insignificant negative relationship between risk management and collective service delivery in the rural district of Uganda.

Methodology and Data Source

Public budget theory lays emphases on the realisation of core services that can impact the people. Public budgeting theory required that government expenditures are annexed to programs and projects of government. However, the theory implied the evaluation of the value of activity which formed the normative view of the theory. In response to this view, effect of budget performance on human capital development was examined by the adoption of monetary values of budget activities which shows the costs involved in providing education, health, agricultural outputs, innovations through science and technology, and examination of their effects on human capital development. The effect of values of budget activities therefore should show that budget performance is effective, efficient and is devoid of indiscipline. Thus, public budget theory forms the basis upon which the model for the study was adapted.

In the examination of the effect of the Budget Performance on Human Capital Development, the model was constructed by giving credence to the public budget theory of Bozeman and Straussman (1982). The theory emphasised the operational efficiency in matching and allocating monetary resources to the programs and needs of the people implies the performance of the budget. Therefore, the multiple regression model to show the functional relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables was stated thus:

...(1)

Where, BEt is budget effectiveness in period t, BOEt is budget efficiency in period t, BDt is budget discipline in period t, DBt stands for debt burden in period t and finally, INFt is inflation rate in period t.

However, the ARDL model was used to capture the relationship between the budget performance and human capital development and the short run and long run relationships arc included in the model which produced model 2.

...(2)

Where HDIt is human capital development index in period t, LOGAGBEt is the aggregate budget effectiveness in period t measured as the total allocations to all the relevant sectors, LOGAGBUEt is the aggregate budget efficiency in period t measured as the ratio of actual expenditure to budgeted expenditure and LOGAGBDISt is aggregate budget discipline in period t measured as the ratio of budgeted expenditure to actual expenditure. DBt is the debt burden in period t measured as the ratio of external debt to export, INFRtis inflation rate for period t.

The independent variable i.e Budget Performance was captured using Aggregate Budget Effectiveness, Aggregate Budget Efficiency and Aggregate Budget Discipline which were derived from combining each sector result of budget effectiveness, budget efficiency and budget discipline to form an aggregate independent variable. The rationale behind this was to examine the joint effect of the budget performance of the sectors on human capital development. This approach emanated from the assumption that the sectors arc operating in the same environment and arc subjected to similar factors for any changes in their operations. The dependent variable is Human Capital Development which was measured using the human development index, while debt burden and inflation rate were control variables.

From equation (2), if the result of bound test showed that there exists cointegration among the variables which then required that the model should be formulated to show the short run dynamics and ECM representing the speed of adjustment in equation (3).

... (3)

The study adopted a descriptive longitudinal research design to collect data over a period of time from 2003 to 2019 giving a total of 17 years. This period began with the base year (2003) the Human Development Index measurement started for Nigeria. Time series data were considered because the study has a time frame for each sector or unit of the central government. Annual budget formed the main secondary data source. The variables of the study were measured by obtaining values of their measures from the annual budgets of each ministry and were analysed to describe the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The descriptive analyses were performed and statistics such as means, minimum and maximum values and standard deviations were explained. The inferential statistics involved the use of ARDL model method to obtain both the short and long run effects of the studied variables. The population for this study comprised all the twenty-four (24) federal Ministries in Nigeria. A sample size of 4 ministries (education, health, agriculture and rural development, science and technology) were purposively selected because of their relevance to human capital development. The Ministries of the Federal Government that are in public sectors of the economy like education, health, agriculture and technology formed our sample frame.

Results and Discussions

The descriptive statistics as presented in Table 1 showed that over the period, the human development of Nigeria on the average is 0.498 which is classified along the lower level of the human capital development report. The maximum HDI score is 0.539 while the minimum score is 0.419. This result shows that Nigeria performance so far in human capital development is less than 1. Budget effectiveness as shown by the result is on the average of 2%. The maximum value of 3.098 shows that over the period the budget effectiveness stood at 3.0% while the minimum level of budget effectiveness is 2.19% and all fall within the average figure. The budget efficiency result reveals that the budget efficiency on the average is 0.71, with maximum score of 0.564 and a minimum value of 0.214. On the overall, the budget is not efficient. Also, the mean value of budget discipline is 0.409 while the maximum value is 0.564 and minimum value is 0.214, all shows that there is lack of budget discipline in the way the budget allocation is expended when compared to the budgeted amount.

Lag Length Selection Criteria

In choosing the appropriate lag length for the model, the vector autoregressive method was adopted. The result of test showed all that the criteria picked lag 1 and was presented in Table 2.

Unit root test for the study variables

As parts of the preliminary test required, unit root test for checking the stationarity of the study variables was carried out. This is also required to know status of time scries in order to reach conclusion on the choice of method of analysis to apply. This exercise was performed through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic and Phillips-Perron test statistic. The logged form of the variables was employed to allow for direct interpretation. The results of the two tests were presented in Table 3. From the result, all variables, HDI, LOGBUEFF, LOGBUEFFECT, LOGBUDISCI, DB AND LOGINFR in this study were stationary at first difference in case of the two methods used. The methods gave the same conclusion about each series in the study. However, this study adopted the Augmented Dickey-fuller which produced the result that met the condition for the use of Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) method.

ARDL bound test for cointegration

The study established that there was long run relationship among the variables after conducting a bound test which showed that F-statistic is greater than the critical value of lower and upper bounds at 5% as presented in Table 4.

Short run parameter estimates of effect of budget performance on human capital development

The results of the short run as presented in Table 5. showed that the parameter estimate of budget effectiveness has a positive and significant effect (P < 0.01) on human development index. The result implies that in short run, 1% rise in budget effectiveness will lead to 0.36% rise in human development index. The positive relationship contributes to the explanation that budget effectiveness will spur increase in human development index when there is adequate allocation to needs of the citizens, and the priorities of the government are given utmost attention.

The estimated coefficient of budget efficiency has positive and significant effect (P < 0.01) on human development index. A percentage increase in budget efficiency will lead to 0.23% increase in human development index. This estimate outcome suggests that when the budget achieves more output, it will have positive effect on the citizens which can then be observed in the changes in human development index. This expected relationship buttresses the fact that the efficiency of budget determines the judicious use of the budget allocation and which has the tendency to impact on human development index.

The coefficient of inflation rate is negative and statistically significant (P < 0.1). The empirical implication of this is that 1% increase in inflation rate will negatively reduce the human capital development by 0.054%. This means that the effect of inflation on the citizens will bring about hardship which can affect their economic activities and then hinder a remarkable progress in human development index. This further supports the impact of inflation which comes in form of untold drawbacks on the economy and human capital development which comes in from the reduction in the welfare and standard of living of the citizens.

The speed of adjustment to equilibrium which is depicted by ECM from the parameter estimates is negative and statistically significant (P < 0.01). The result shows that in the occurrence of shocks, the model is 1.77 % capable of returning to equilibrium in the long run over the period of the shock. The negative sign and significance of the ECM conform to a prior expectation according to (Pahlavani, Wilson and Worthington, 2005).

Long run results of the effect of budget performance on human capital development in Nigeria

The long run result is shown in Table 6. From the parameter estimates, the result shows that budget effectiveness has positive and significant effect on human development index in the long run (P < 0.01). The study portrays that the effect of budget effectiveness will lead to 0.12% in human development index. This suggests that budget becomes effective when the allocation is mainly directed to human capital development, and it can achieve a remarkable progress in the long run. The result supported the findings of (Arogundade, 2016) who found the positive effect of budget effectiveness on budget performance of parastatals in his study. However, the study opposed the findings of (Solihin, Mursinto & Sugilarti, 2017) which found no significant effect of expenditure on education index in Indonesia.

Also, budget efficiency shows a positive and significant effect on human development index with coefficient of (P < 0. 05). This results points that in the long run, budget efficiency has influence on human development index. An increase of 1% in budget efficiency will lead to 0.23% in human development index. This effect of budget efficiency supports the rationale behind efficient utilisation of resources in achieving targets which are outputs of a process or program as designed in a budget.

The study observed that budget discipline influences human development index with parameter estimates of (P < 0.05) which shows that 1% increase in budget discipline will lead to 0.10 % increase in human development index. The effect of budget discipline could only be observed in the long run because it gives an anticipation of a situation whereby the use of resources will be handled with discipline which is capable of ensuring that there are no cases of unnecessary overspending outside the budgeted amount. The present study supported Mcquestin, Noguchi and Drew (2021) which reported a negative relationship between expenditure underestimation and technical efficiency but found that expenditure inaccuracy affects technical efficiency positively. However, budget absorption has been found to impact negatively on budget discipline which may be responsible for lack of achieving service delivery (Ramdany & Yadiati 2018).

Meanwhile, debt burden showed a positive and significant effect on human development index (P < 0.1) which gives an interpretation that 1% increase in debt burden will directly lead to 0.03% rise in human development index in the long run. The effect of debt burden will emanate from its use as the major source of financing the budget as the case in Nigeria which will later make it a driver of development only if its diversion is prevented in the long run.

Post estimation test on budget performance and human capital development

In conducting post estimation tests for model on budget performance and human capital development, consideration was given to the tests of normality, serial correlation, homoscedasticity, linearity and stability. These are required to verify the validity the regression model and reliability of the estimated parameters. In this study, Table 7 presents the result of the normality test which confirms that the residuals are normally distributed with Jarque-Bera statistics probability of 0.6548 which is above the 5% significance. The Breusch- Godfrey LM test revealed F- statistics is not significant with probability value of 0.6769. This implies that the error terms' successive values are independent over the sample period therefore there is no problem of serial correlation of the error terms. Furthermore, the homoscedasticity nature of the error term was checked with aid of Breusch-Pagan Godfrey Test. The probability of the Fstatistics showed that each error term has a finite variance.

The linearity checks show that the model is free from functional error and correlation problem as evidenced by the Ramsey RESET test. Finally, Figure 1 and Figure 2 present the CUSUM and CUSUM SQUARED of the model and showed that the coefficients fall within the 5% bounds and gives an assurance of the stability of the parameter estimates and verify the reliability of making inferences with their values.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The state of human development index for Nigeria calls for concern when it is compared with other Africa countries position in the ranking of UNDP. This low position raises a concern to scrutinise the budget performance in relation to human capital development. Therefore, the short and long run relationship among the budget effectiveness, budget efficiency and budget discipline and human development index was examined using annual data from 2003 to 2019. The ARDL method was employed after the stationarity of the variables was checked through ADF and PP. In general, the result showed that the budget performance has significant effect on human capital development.

Firstly, the study demonstrates positive effect of budget effectiveness on human capital development. This suggests that budget allocations (education, health, agriculture and science and technology) will affect human capital development significantly. For significant impact to be made in human capital development in Nigeria, budget effectiveness must be increasing. Therefore, government should make the allocation by way of sufficiency to drive human capital development. Allocations should be increased to enable more activities and projects to be embarked upon by the relevant ministries.

Likewise, the budget efficiency has significant effect on human capital development which connotes that the more output from the budget, the more the human capital development. Budget efficiency in allocating the financial resources should be pursued with the goal of making the budget achieve more output through prudent utilisation and minimisation of costs. Therefore, budget must be efficient in ensuring that projects and programs as designed in the budget are adequately expended on and not underfunded. This implies that where the budget actual expenditure is significantly less than the budgeted expenditure, the budget efficiency will not impact on human capital development.

Lastly, budget discipline has no significant impact on human development index in the short run. In the reality, Nigerian budget has been marked with indiscipline which is evidenced from the way the budget is often expended without strict adherence to the budgeted amount. The negative relationship between budget discipline and human capital development, although not significant, shows that as the budget discipline is increasing, human capital development is decreasing. However, the situation changed in the long run with positive and significant effect of budget discipline on human development index which portrays that budget discipline can lead to human capital development if it is observed in Nigeria. Budget discipline policy should be formulated and enforced to guide against the occurrence of spending beyond the limit specified in the budget, and to curtail the likelihood of corruption from overspending.

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Sidebar

Original research paper

Citation:

Akano, L.O., & Salawu, R.O. (2024). Budget Performance and Human Capital Development of Relevant Sectors in Nigeria. Economic Insights - Trends and Challenges, 13(4),81-92

References

References