Development of a clinical prediction model for benign and malignant pulmonary nodules with a CTR ≥ 50% utilizing artificial intelligence-driven radiomics analysis

Abstract

Objective

In clinical practice, diagnosing the benignity and malignancy of solid-component-predominant pulmonary nodules is challenging, especially when 3D consolidation-to-tumor ratio (CTR) ≥ 50%, as malignant ones are more invasive. This study aims to develop and validate an AI-driven radiomics prediction model for such nodules to enhance diagnostic accuracy.

Methods

Data of 2,591 pulmonary nodules from five medical centers (Zhengzhou People’s Hospital, etc.) were collected. Applying exclusion criteria, 370 nodules (78 benign, 292 malignant) with 3D CTR ≥ 50% were selected and randomly split 7:3 into training and validation cohorts. Using R programming, Lasso regression with 10-fold cross-validation filtered features, followed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression to construct the model. Its efficacy was evaluated by ROC, DCA curves and calibration plots.

Results

Lasso regression picked 18 non-zero coefficients from 108 features. Three significant factors—patient age, solid component volume and mean CT value—were identified. The logistic regression equation was formulated. In the training set, the ROC AUC was 0.721 (95%CI: 0.642–0.801); in the validation set, AUC was 0.757 (95%CI: 0.632–0.881), showing the model’s stability and predictive ability.

Conclusion

The model has moderate accuracy in differentiating benign from malignant 3D CTR ≥ 50% nodules, holding clinical potential. Future efforts could explore more to improve its precision and value.

Clinical trial number

Not applicable.