Association between population viral load surrogate indicator and HIV transmission potential: a prospective cohort study in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Background

New indicators of potential human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission are being actively explored. We aim to categorical testing of the viral load (VL) of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in order to explore new indicators to measure the intensity of the epidemic and the effectiveness of the response in the community.

Methods

A dynamic cohort study was conducted in Yining to monitor the VL of all persons living with HIV from 2017 to 2019. Different population VL (PVL) surrogate indicators were measured and the strength of the associations of different PVL surrogates with HIV incidence, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, virus unsuppression, and viremia prevalence was assessed. PVL surrogate indicators were used to describe the current status of HIV transmission in different populations and communities.

Results

All PVL indicators decreased from 2017 to 2019 (P < 0.05). Arithmetic mean community viral load (CVL) (r = 1.000, P = 0.006) and geometric mean CVL (r = 1.000, P = 0.001) were positively associated with HIV incidence, ART coverage and viral unsuppression (P < 0.05). CVL was higher in the male, ≤ 25 years of age, primary school or below, other household registration, other medical insurance types, other source of sample, nonmarital and noncommercial heterosexual contact, and nonmarital and commercial heterosexual contact subgroups. Community-based cross-sectional analyses showed that CVL in community 10 was positively correlated with viral unsuppression rate and viremia prevalence but negatively correlated with ART coverage rate, suggesting that the community was a hotspot for HIV epidemics.

Conclusions

CVL can be used as an indicator for assessing HIV transmission and identifying high-risk populations and hotspot communities.