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Abstract
Context
Prediction of adult height (AH) is important in clinical management of short children. The conventional methods of Bayley-Pinneau (BP) or Roche-Wainer-Thissen (RWT) have limitations.
Objective
We aimed to develop a set of algorithms for AH prediction in patients with idiopathic short stature (ISS) which are specific for combinations of predicting variables.
Methods
Demographic and auxologic data were collected in childhood (1980s) and at AH (1990s). Data were collected by Dutch and German referral centers for pediatric endocrinology. A total of 292 subjects with ISS (219 male, 73 female) were enrolled. The population was randomly split into modeling (n = 235) and validation (n = 57) cohorts. Linear multi-regression analysis was performed with predicted AH (PAH) as response variable and combinations of chronological age (CA), baseline height, parental heights, relative bone age (BA/CA), birth weight, and sex as exploratory variables.
Results
Ten models including different exploratory variables were selected with adjusted R² ranging from 0.84 to 0.78 and prediction errors from 3.16 to 3.68 cm. Applied to the validation cohort, mean residuals (PAH minus observed AH) ranged from −0.29 to −0.82 cm, while the conventional methods showed some overprediction (BP: +0.53 cm; RWT: +1.33 cm; projected AH: +3.81 cm). There was no significant trend of residuals with PAH or any exploratory variables, in contrast to BP and projected AH.
Conclusion
This set of 10 multi-regression algorithms, developed specifically for children with ISS, provides a flexible tool for AH prediction with better accuracy than the conventional methods.
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Details
1 Division of Pediatric Endocrinology & Diabetology, Center of Child and Adolescent Medicine, Justus-Liebig University , Giessen 35392 , Germany
2 Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, University Children’s Hospital , Tübingen 72076 , Germany
3 Department of Pediatrics, University Children’s Hospital , Leipzig 03419 , Germany
4 Children’s Center Johannisplatz , Leipzig 04103 , Germany
5 Willem-Alexander Children’s Hospital, Department of Pediatrics, Leiden University Medical Center , Leiden 2333 , The Netherlands