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Abstract
While World Cultural Heritage Sites in developing countries are fewer in number, they are over-represented in the List of World Heritage in Danger, and few scientific studies are conducted about them. This study investigates factors that threaten the World Cultural Heritage Sites in selected Asian countries, the intensity of these threats, and the management capacity to respond to them. Linked data from UNESCO Periodic Report (Cycle II), the World Heritage Site database, and the Köppen–Geiger climate classification is analysed using logit and ordered logit models. The results show that the perceived likelihood of a major threat is highest for the factors (i) sudden ecological or geological events (dy/dx = 0.18, p < 0.01), (ii) climate change and severe weather events (dy/dx = 0.1, p < 0.05), (iii) local conditions affecting physical fabric (dy/dx = 0.1, p < 0.05), and (iv) social–cultural use of heritage (dy/dx = 0.10, p < 0.05), while the likelihood of high management capacity is highest for the factors (i) illegal human activities (dy/dx = 0.27, p < 0.01) and (ii) invasive/alien or hyper-abundant species (dy/dx = 0.21, p < 0.01). In addition, sites in the Philippines and Afghanistan are most likely to report threats as major, but least likely to report high management capacity compared to other Asian countries. Further, the sites in this region do not have correspondingly high (or even adequate) management capacity for threats identified as major. The study, therefore, concludes that the studied sites are highly vulnerable to threats primarily from natural rather than socio-economic or human-induced causes. The study contributes novel insights into the risk and vulnerability of the World Cultural Heritage Sites in developing countries.