Forecasting Monthly Export Price of Sugarcane in India Using Sarima Modelling

Abstract

Sugarcane is the primary agricultural industry that sustains and promotes economic growth in India. In 2018, the majority of India's sugarcane production, specifically 79.9%, was allocated for the manufacturing of white sugar. A smaller portion, 11.29%, was used to produce jaggery, while 8.80% was utilized as seed and feed components. A total of 840.16 million metric tonnes of cane sugar was shipped in the year 2019. The primary objective of this research is to determine the most suitable forecasting model for predicting the monthly export price of sugarcane in India. The input consists of a time series with 240 monthly observations of the export price of sugarcane in India, spanning from January 1993 to December 2013. The SARIMA approach was employed to predict the monthly export price of sugarcane and it is concluded that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1), (0, 0, 0)¹² model is the best-fitted one by the expert modeler method. As a result, the fitted model appears to be adequate. The RMSE and MAPE statistics are used to analyze the precision of the model.