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Abstract
Background
Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular malignant tumor occurring among children, with an incidence rate of 1/15 000. This study built a joinpoint regression model to assess the incidence trend of retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 and constructed a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) in children.
Materials and Methods
Patients less than 19 years diagnosed with retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 were selected from the SEER database. Joinpoint regression analysis (version 4.9.0.0) was performed to evaluate the trends in retinoblastoma incidence rates from 2004 to 2015. Cox Regression Analysis was applied to investigate prognostic risk factors that influence OS.
Results
Joinpoint regression revealed that retinoblastoma incidence exhibited no significant increase or decrease from 2004 to 2015. As per the multiple Cox regression, tumor size, laterality, and residence (rural-urban continuum code) were correlated with OS and were used to construct a nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a good C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.79), and the calibration curve for survival probability demonstrated that the predictions corresponded well with actual observations.
Conclusions and Relevance
A prognostic nomogram integrating the risk factors for retinoblastoma was constructed to provide comparatively accurate individual survival predictions. If validated, this type of assessment could be used to guide therapy in patients with retinoblastoma.
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Details
1 Department of Radiation Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University , Zhengzhou, Henan province , People’s Republic of China
2 Department of Ophthalmology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital , Fuzhou City, Fujian province , People’s Republic of China
3 Department of Pharmacology, Raghavendra Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (RIPER) , Anantapuramu, Chiyyedu, Andhra Pradesh , India
4 Class 11 of Grade 3, Clinical Medicine of Medical School, Zhengzhou University , Zhengzhou, Henan province , People’s Republic of China
5 Cancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University , Zhengzhou, Henan province , People’s Republic of China
6 Department of Radiation Oncology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute , Beijing, Hebei province , People’s Republic of China