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© 2025 Sunkonkit et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Introduction

Mortality rates among critically ill pediatric patients remain a persistent challenge. It is imperative to identify patients at higher risk to effectively allocate appropriate resources. Our study aimed to develop a prediction score based on clinical parameters and hemogram to predict pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) mortality.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study to develop a clinical prediction score using data from children aged 1 month to 18 years admitted for at least 24 hours to the PICU at Chiang Mai University between January 2018 and December 2022. PICU mortality was defined as death within 28 days of admission. The score was developed using multivariable logistic regression and assessed for calibration and discrimination.

Results

There were 29 deaths in 330 children (8.8%). Our model for predicting 28-day ICU mortality uses four key predictors: male gender, use of vasoactive drugs, red blood cell distribution width (RDW) ≥15.9%, and platelet distribution width (PDW), categorized as follows: <10% (0 points), 10–14.9% (2 points), and ≥15% (4 points). Scores range from 0 to 8, with a cutoff value of 5 to differentiate low-risk (<5) from high-risk (≥5) groups. The tool demonstrates excellent performance with an AuROC curve of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.80–0.91, p<0.001) showing excellent discrimination and calibration, 82.8% sensitivity, and 73.1% specificity, respectively.

Conclusions

The score, developed from clinical data and hemogram, demonstrated potential in predicting ICU mortality among critically ill children. However, further studies are necessary to externally validate the score before it can be confidentially implemented in clinical practices.

Details

Title
Bedside clinical prediction tool for mortality in critically ill children
Author
Sunkonkit, Kanokkarn  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Chai-adisaksopha, Chatree  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Natesirinilkul, Rungrote; Phinyo, Phichayut  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Trongtrakul, Konlawij  VIAFID ORCID Logo 
First page
e0322050
Section
Research Article
Publication year
2025
Publication date
Apr 2025
Publisher
Public Library of Science
e-ISSN
19326203
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3194483940
Copyright
© 2025 Sunkonkit et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.