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© 2025 Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ . Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Background

Exclusion of coronary stenosis in individuals with suggestive symptoms is challenging. Cardiac CT or coronary angiography is often used but is inefficient and costly and involves risks. Sex-stratified algorithms based on electronic health records (EHRs) could be a non-invasive alternative for excluding coronary stenosis, yet their performance may vary by healthcare settings. Thus, external validation is crucial for determining their generalisability. This study aimed to externally validate sex-stratified machine learning algorithms based on EHR data to predict the absence of coronary stenosis, evaluated in diverse clinical settings.

Methods

Sex-stratified XGBoost algorithms were trained on EHR data from patients who underwent coronary imaging at the University Medical Center Utrecht (n=14 674) and externally tested on EHR data of 13 Cardiology centres in the Netherlands (n=9252). The outcome was defined as the absence of coronary stenosis, identified through text mining of radiology report conclusions, and predictive performance was assessed by negative predictive values (NPVs) and specificities.

Results

On the training cohort (9298 men (median age 55 years, 73% no coronary stenosis) and 5376 women (median age 59 years, 83% no coronary stenosis)), the algorithms showed NPVs and specificities of 0.95 and 0.14 in men and 0.93 and 0.26 in women, respectively. On the testing cohort (4762 men (median age 60 years, 60% no coronary stenosis) and 4490 women (median age 60 years, 83% no coronary stenosis)), the algorithm showed NPVs and specificities of 0.89 and 0.07 in men and 0.87 and 0.18 in women, respectively.

Conclusions

This study externally validates sex‐stratified machine learning algorithms using EHR data to non-invasively predict the absence of coronary stenosis, with high NPVs observed across settings. However, given the modest specificity and study limitations, these findings should be considered preliminary, warranting further refinement before clinical adoption.

Details

Title
Optimising coronary imaging decisions with machine learning: an external validation study
Author
L Malin Overmars 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Bram van Es 1 ; Groepenhoff, Floor 2 ; Mark C H De Groot 1 ; Somsen, G Aernout 3 ; Bots, Sophie Heleen 4 ; Tulevski, I Igor 5 ; Hofstra, Leonard 6 ; den Ruijter, Hester M 2 ; van Solinge, Wouter W 1 ; Hoefer, Imo 1 ; Haitjema, Saskia 1 

 Central Diagnostic Laboratory, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands 
 Experimental Cardiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands 
 Cardiology, Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands, Utrecht, The Netherlands 
 Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht University Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht, The Netherlands 
 Cardiology, Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 
 Cardiology, Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Cardiology, Amsterdam UMC Locatie VUmc, Amsterdam, Noord-Holland, The Netherlands 
First page
e003072
Section
Coronary artery disease
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group LTD
ISSN
2398595X
e-ISSN
20533624
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3199967936
Copyright
© 2025 Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ . Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.