External validation and calibration of risk equations for prediction of diabetic kidney diseases among patients with type 2 diabetes in Taiwan

Abstract

Background

Most existing risk equations for predicting/stratifying individual diabetic kidney disease (DKD) risks were developed using relatively dated data from selective and homogeneous trial populations comprising predominately Caucasian type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. We seek to adapt risk equations for prediction of DKD progression (microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, and renal failure) using empiric data from a real-world population with T2D in Taiwan.

Methods

Risk equations from three well-known simulation models: UKPDS-OM2, RECODe, and CHIME models, were adapted. Discrimination and calibration were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), a calibration plot (slope and intercept), and the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino (GND) test. Recalibration was performed for unsatisfactory calibration (p-value of GND test < 0.05) by adjusting the baseline hazards of risk equations to address risk variations among patients.

Results

The RECODe equations for microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria showed moderate discrimination (AUROC: 0.62 and 0.76) but underestimated the event risks (calibration slope > 1). The CHIME equation had the best discrimination for renal failure (AUROCs from CHIME, UKPDS-OM2 and RECODe: 0.77, 0.60 and 0.64, respectively). All three equations overestimated renal failure risk (calibration slope < 1). After rigorous updating, the calibration slope/intercept of the recalibrated RECODe for predicting microalbuminuria (0.87/0.0459) and macroalbuminuria (1.10/0.0004) risks as well as the recalibrated CHIME equation for predicting renal failure risk (0.95/-0.0014) were improved.

Conclusions

Risk equations for prediction of DKD progression in real-world Taiwanese T2D patients were established, which can be incorporated into a multi-state simulation model to project and differentiate individual DKD risks for supporting timely interventions and health economic research.