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© 2025. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence can cause permanent damage to buildings if the drying extends below the foundations. Clay soils and damage are widespread in France. The causes of clay shrinkage are understood at the micro-scale, but the same reasoning cannot be applied at the large spatial scales that are critical for land management because the phenomenon depends on very local parameters. In this study, clay shrinkage occurrence factors are characterized and the global number of insurance claims is statistically quantified, without considering the risk of damage for each house. A drought index specifically designed for clay shrinkage is used to analyze past and future soil moisture droughts that may cause subsidence by calculating annual drought magnitudes for France. The index is based on Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model simulations. It is calculated for several vegetation types. A comparison of the annual values of this index with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Historical and projected simulations are performed, with the main difference being the meteorological forcing provided to ISBA. The historical simulation covers the years 2000–2022 and uses the SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis. The projected simulation covers the years 2006–2065 and uses an ensemble of climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The historical simulation shows particularly widespread droughts in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. In 2022, particularly high drought index values are observed throughout the country. Projections show that drought conditions are expected to worsen in the future, especially under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. The projections diverge significantly after 2046, and both the north and south of the country are equally affected.

Details

Title
Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France
Author
Barthelemy, Sophie 1 ; Bonan, Bertrand 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel 3 ; Grandjean, Gilles 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Bernardie, Séverine 4 ; Naulin, Jean-Philippe 5 ; Patrick Le Moigne 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Boone, Aaron 2 ; Calvet, Jean-Christophe 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France; Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France 
 CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France 
 CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; now at: University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Balearic Islands, Spain, and Natural Hazards and Emergencies Observatory of the Balearic Islands, Inca, Balearic Islands, Spain 
 Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France 
 Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France 
Pages
2321-2337
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
10275606
e-ISSN
16077938
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3214851043
Copyright
© 2025. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.