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© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

With the rapid development of a new power system under the “dual carbon” goal, pumped storage has gained increasing attention for its role in integrating renewable energy and enhancing power system flexibility and security. This study proposes a dynamic benefit evaluation method for pumped storage projects, addressing the limitations of static analyses in capturing the evolving benefit trends. In this paper, the multi-stage dynamic benefit evaluation model was constructed by introducing time-of-use tariffs, periodic capacity pricing mechanism, and ancillary service revenue prediction based on machine learning and the multiple regression method. Sensitivity analysis was applied to explore the impact of key parameter variations on economic indicators. The results show that the benefit structure differs significantly across stages, and with electricity market development, a diversified pattern supported by electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues will emerge. The application of the model to an actual operating pumped storage power station yielded an internal rate of return of 8.18%, a payback period of 16.4 years, and a 26% increase in net present value compared with traditional methods. The proposed model expands the theoretical framework for pumped storage benefit evaluation and provides strong support for investment decisions, policy design, and operational strategy optimization.

Details

Title
An Optimized Dynamic Benefit Evaluation Method for Pumped Storage Projects in the Context of the “Dual Carbon” Goal
Author
Feng Cong 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Guo, Qi 2 ; Liu, Qian 3 ; Feihong, Jian 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; [email protected] (Q.G.); [email protected] (Q.L.); [email protected] (F.J.), Department of Civil Engineering, Henan Polytechnic Institute, Nanyang 473000, China, College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China 
 Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; [email protected] (Q.G.); [email protected] (Q.L.); [email protected] (F.J.), College of Hydraulic and Environment Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China 
 Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; [email protected] (Q.G.); [email protected] (Q.L.); [email protected] (F.J.) 
First page
2815
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
19961073
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3217733424
Copyright
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.