Chill topped historical Arabica coffee yield loss among climate stressors in Yunnan, China, followed by drought

Abstract

Existing knowledge on the coffee yield response to climate stressors has been mostly built on evidence from traditional coffee-growing regions, the Tropics. As geographical shifts to higher latitudes are proposed as a warming climate adaptation, understanding coffee yield response to climate stressors in marginal growing areas is crucial. Here, we identify the critical climate stressors and quantify their yield impact in Yunnan, China, a subtropical coffee-growing area, by using generalized additive models. Our results show coffee yield can decrease by 18.9% per 1 °C decrease in minimum of daily minimum air temperature during maturity or by 4.0% per 0.1 kPa increase in vapor pressure deficit during flowering. During 1992–2022, chill stress topped the relative contribution to coffee yield loss for 66% of counties, followed by drought. Our results could enrich understanding of climate-coffee yield interactions and underscore the need to focus on chill stress in potential coffee-growing regions under future climate change.