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© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Background/Objectives: This study aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict recurrence in thymoma patients using conventional and radiomic signatures extracted from preoperative [18F]FDG PET/CT. Methods: A total of 50 patients (25 males, 25 females; mean age 63.3 ± 14.2 years) who underwent thymectomy and preoperative [18F]FDG PET/CT between 2012 and 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Radiomic analysis was performed using free-from-recurrence (FFR) status as a reference. Clinico-metabolic PET parameters were collected, and thymoma lesions were manually segmented on [18F]FDG PET/CT. A total of 856 radiomic features (RFts) were extracted from PET and CT datasets following IBSI guidelines, and robust RFts were selected. The dataset was split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Two ML models (PET- and CT-based, respectively), each with three classifiers—Random Forest (RF), Support-Vector-Machine, and Tree—were trained and internally validated using RFts and clinico-metabolic signatures. Results: A total of 50 ROIs were selected and segmented. FFR was observed in 84% of our cohort. Forty-three robust RFts were selected from the CT dataset and 16 from the PET dataset, predominantly wavelet-based RFts. Additionally, three metabolic PET parameters were selected and included in the PET Model. Both the CT and PET models successfully discriminated against FFR after surgery, with the CT Model slightly outperforming the PET Model across different classifiers. The performance metrics of the RF classifier for the CT and PET models were AUC = 0.970/0.949, CA = 0.880/0.840, Precision = 0.884/0.842, Recall = 0.880/0.846, Specificity = 0.887/0.839, Sensitivity = 0.920/0.844, TP = 81.8%/83.3%, and TN = 92.9%/84.6%, respectively. Conclusions: ML-models trained on PET/CT radiomic features show promising results for predicting recurrence in patients with thymomas, which could be potentially applied in clinical practice for a better personalized treatment strategy.

Details

Title
Machine Learning Models Derived from [18F]FDG PET/CT for the Prediction of Recurrence in Patients with Thymomas
Author
Castello, Angelo 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Manco Luigi 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Cattaneo Margherita 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Orlandi Riccardo 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Rosso, Lorenzo 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Croci, Giorgio Alberto 5 ; Florimonte Luigia 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Scribano Giovanni 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Turra Alessandro 2 ; Ferrero Stefano 6 ; Nosotti Mario 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Carrafiello Gianpaolo 7 ; Castellani Massimo 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Mendogni Paolo 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Department of Nuclear Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected] (A.C.); [email protected] (L.F.); [email protected] (M.C.) 
 Medical Physics Unit, University Hospital of Ferrara, 44124 Ferrara, Italy; [email protected] (L.M.); [email protected] (G.S.); [email protected] (A.T.) 
 Division of Thoracic Surgery and Lung Transplantation, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected] (M.C.); [email protected] (R.O.); [email protected] (L.R.); [email protected] (M.N.) 
 Division of Thoracic Surgery and Lung Transplantation, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected] (M.C.); [email protected] (R.O.); [email protected] (L.R.); [email protected] (M.N.), Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy 
 Division of Pathology, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected] (G.A.C.); [email protected] (S.F.) 
 Division of Pathology, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected] (G.A.C.); [email protected] (S.F.), Department of Biomedical, Surgical and Dental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122 Milan, Italy 
 Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Via Francesco Sforza 35, 20122 Milan, Italy; [email protected], Faculty of Health Science, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122 Milan, Italy 
First page
721
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
23065354
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3233086317
Copyright
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.