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© The Author(s) 2025. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the "License"). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Optimizing oil production in wells employing gas lift systems is a critical challenge due to the complex interplay of operational and reservoir parameters. This study aimed to develop robust predictive models for estimating oil production rates using a comprehensive dataset from oil fields in south-eastern Iraq, leveraging advanced machine learning techniques. The dataset, comprised of 169 rigorously validated samples, includes key features such as basic sediment and water content, choke size, pressures, gas injection characteristics, gas lift valve depth, oil density, and temperature. Input and output variables were normalized and split into training and test sets to ensure fairness and reliability. Multiple machine learning models (Decision Tree, AdaBoost, Random Forest, Ensemble Learning, CNN, SVR, MLP-ANN, and Lasso Regression) were trained and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation and key statistical metrics (R², MSE, AARE%). The Random Forest model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a test R² of 0.867 and the lowest prediction errors (MSE: 18502 and AARE: 8.76%) for the testing phase, while other models were prone to overfitting or underfitting. Sensitivity analysis and SHAP interpretability methods revealed that basic sediment and water content, choke size, and upstream pressure had the greatest influence on oil output. These findings underscore the importance of both statistical rigor and model interpretability in oil production forecasting and provide actionable insights for optimizing gas lift operations in oil wells.

Details

Title
Predictive modeling of oil rate for wells under gas lift using machine learning
Author
Ma, Famin 1 ; Altalbawy, Farag M. A. 2 ; Patel, Pinank 3 ; Manjunatha, R. 4 ; Kalia, Rishiv 5 ; Formanova, Shoira 6 ; Naveen, P. Raja 7 ; Joshi, Kamal Kant 8 ; Sinha, Aashna 9 ; Kandahari, Abdolali Yarahmadi 10 ; Al-Rubaye, Taqi Mohammed Khattab 11 ; Alam, Mohammad Mahtab 12 

 Shangluo University, 726000, Shangluo, Shannxi, China (ROR: https://ror.org/01a56n213) (GRID: grid.481179.2) (ISNI: 0000 0004 1757 7308) 
 Department of Chemistry, University College of Duba, University of Tabuk, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia (ROR: https://ror.org/04yej8x59) (GRID: grid.440760.1) (ISNI: 0000 0004 0419 5685) 
 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Technology, Marwadi Universitly Research Center,, Marwadi University, Rajkot, Gujarat, India (ROR: https://ror.org/030dn1812) (GRID: grid.508494.4) (ISNI: 0000 0004 7424 8041) 
 Department of Data analytics and Mathematical Sciences, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, India (ROR: https://ror.org/01cnqpt53) (GRID: grid.449351.e) (ISNI: 0000 0004 1769 1282) 
 Centre for Research Impact & Outcome, Chitkara University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Chitkara University, 140401, Rajpura, Punjab, India (ROR: https://ror.org/057d6z539) (GRID: grid.428245.d) (ISNI: 0000 0004 1765 3753) 
 Department of Chemistry and Its Teaching Methods, Tashkent State Pedagogical University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan (ROR: https://ror.org/051g1n833) (GRID: grid.502767.1) (ISNI: 0000 0004 0403 3387) 
 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Raghu Engineering College, 531162, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India 
 Department of Allied Science, Graphic Era Hill University, Dehradun, India (ROR: https://ror.org/01bb4h160) (ISNI: 0000 0004 5894 758X); Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India (ROR: https://ror.org/02bdf7k74) (GRID: grid.411706.5) (ISNI: 0000 0004 1773 9266) 
 School of Applied and Life Sciences, Division of Research and Innovation, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India (ROR: https://ror.org/00ba6pg24) (GRID: grid.449906.6) (ISNI: 0000 0004 4659 5193) 
10  Faculty of Engineering, Kandahar University, Kandahar, Afghanistan (ROR: https://ror.org/0157yqb81) (GRID: grid.440459.8) (ISNI: 0000 0004 5927 9333) 
11  Department of computers Techniques engineering, College of technical engineering, The Islamic University, Najaf, Iraq (ROR: https://ror.org/01wfhkb67) (GRID: grid.444971.b) (ISNI: 0000 0004 6023 831X); Department of computers Techniques engineering, College of technical engineering, The Islamic University of Al Diwaniyah, Al Diwaniyah, Iraq (ROR: https://ror.org/01wfhkb67) (GRID: grid.444971.b) (ISNI: 0000 0004 6023 831X); Department of computers Techniques engineering, College of technical engineering, The Islamic University of Babylon, Babylon, Iraq (ROR: https://ror.org/0170edc15) (GRID: grid.427646.5) (ISNI: 0000 0004 0417 7786) 
12  Department of Basic Medical Sciences, College of Applied Medical Science, King Khalid University, 61421, Abha, Saudi Arabia (ROR: https://ror.org/052kwzs30) (GRID: grid.412144.6) (ISNI: 0000 0004 1790 7100) 
Pages
27765
Section
Article
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20452322
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3234777266
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2025. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the "License"). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.