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Early analyses of the 2006 presidential election in Mexico have called our attention to the post-election process, to accusations of fraud, to the extent of partisan polarization, and to the prospects of democratic consolidation, but few have offered an explanation of why President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) was able to maintain control of the executive office, even by the slim margin of 0.56%. In this article, I argue that the first post-PRI-regime election split the anti-PRI vote into different ideological and policy-oriented camps. This made the 2006 race a choice between policy programs and priorities that reflected economic concerns, and voters' assessments of the economy were a central feature of candidate support. Economic growth in the second half of the Fox administration as well as unusually high oil prices played a crucial role in the election. They enabled the PAN candidate, Felipe Calderón, to appeal for stability and to attack his main contender, PRD candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador, as a danger to it. Had economic growth remained slow and oil prices at the expected rate, the PAN's chances to keep the presidency would have been slim, especially against a popular leftist candidate who had a lead in the polls, promised to help the poor at the expense of the rich, and voiced harsh criticism against the "neoliberal" policies of the PRI and PAN governments.
Dramatis Personae
Three main presidential candidates, out of five in total, obtained over 95% of the votes in 2006. Because the president is constitutionally forbidden to run for reelection, his party organized a primary only open to party members and affiliates, which turned out to be an upset for Fox's favorite candidate. Interior Minister Santiago Creel. The winner was a relatively unknown figure at the time, Felipe Calderón, a young politician who had served as PAN congressional leader and as secretary of energy under Fox, a cabinet position he resigned in protest to Fox's open support for Creel.
As mayor of Mexico City, Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a national political figure and, accordingly, had been leading in the polls for at least 18 months, making him the natural candidate for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). His lO-to-12-point advantage in most of 2005 and early 2006...