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For decades, scholars have pondered the likelihood and effect of computers surpassing human intelligence, often referred to as the singularity. For militaries, artificial intelligence (AI) singularity will be a double-edged sword. We should seek to achieve and employ it, while denying our adversaries the opportunity to do so. When AI singularity does emerge, it will likely have profound implications for tactical capabilities, as well as strategic and operational decisionmaking. U.S. adversaries, including both China and to a lesser extent Russia, will seek to take advantage of the new possibilities AI singularity offers. This article focuses on countering these effects. While the emerging technologies are novel, the need for adaptation is perennial. I will base my recommendations on recent developments in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) "learning machine," which were aimed at enhancing its ability to cope with the accelerated evolution of its adversaries in the Middle East.
In her study "Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China's Future Military Power," Elsa B. Kania identified several capabilities the Chinese are looking to enhance by leveraging AI, including "AI-enabled data fusion, information processing, and intelligence analysis; war-gaming, simulation, and training; defense, offense, and command in information warfare; and intelligent support to command decision-making." She notes that some Chinese thinkers anticipate a "'singularity' on the battlefield, at which human cognition can no longer keep pace with the speed of decisionmaking and tempo of combat in future warfare" and that the "PLA could prove less adverse to the prospect of taking humans 'out of the loop' to achieve an advantage." This development could present a strategic challenge to the United States, she argues. Kania urges the U.S. military to prepare for a future in which the United States may no longer enjoy a clear technological edge, especially by focusing on "the human factors and organizational capacity that are critical determinants of successful defense innovation."1
Although it may seem that AI singularity will mainly affect military capabilities at the tactical level, through robotic swarms for example, Kania asserts that "... the PLA may focus on leveraging AI to enhance command and control at the operational and even strategic levels of warfare through intelligent assistance to command decisionmaking, even seeking to enable decisionmaking at machine speed."
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