Content area
Full Text
COMMENTARY
"Scenarios give . . . [decision makers] something very precious: the ability to reperceive reality."
-PIERRE WACK
In the days when pharaohs ruled Egypt, a temple stood far up the Nile, beyond the cataracts in Nubia, in what is now the northern desert of the Sudan. Three tributaries joined together in that region to form the Nile, which flowed down one thousand miles to produce a miraculous event each year, the flooding of its river basin, which permitted Egyptian farmers to grow crops in the hot, rainless midsummer.
Every spring, the temple priests gathered at the river's edge to check the color of the water. If it was clear, the White Nile, which flowed from Lake Victoria through the Sudanese swamps, would dominate the flow. The flooding would be mild, and late; farmers would produce a minimum of crops. If the stream appeared dark, the stronger waters of the Blue Nile, which joined the White Nile at Khartoum, would prevail. The flood would rise enough to saturate the fields and provide a bountiful harvest. Finally, if the stream showed dominance by the green-brown waters of the Atbara, which rushed down from the Ethiopian highlands, then the floods would be early and catastrophically high. The crops might drown; indeed, Pharaoh might have to use his grain stores as a reserve.
Each year, the priests sent messengers to inform the king of the color of the water. They may also have used lights and smoke signals to carry word downstream. Pharaoh then knew how prosperous the farmers in his kingdom would be, and how much he could raise in taxes. Thus, he knew whether he could afford to conquer more territory. As Pierre Wack . . . would say, the priests of the Sudanese Nile were the world's first long-term forecasters. They understood the meaning of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.1
What possible connection could this vignette have with the practice of strategic and future force planning? The answer might be more surprising than you think.
Since our focus in this essay centers on planning for the future and strategic uncertainties, while not losing sight of the challenges and opportunities that face us today, we have paid attention most to what the nation needs to...