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The concept of hybrid regimes-those that exhibit both democratic and authoritarian features simultaneously-is by now well established in the field of comparative politics. Hybrid regimes are sometimes called "competitive authoritarian" because, while the ruling party competes in elections (usually winning), the president is granted an array of autocratic powers that erode checks and balances. Such regimes are now common across the developing world. If we use Freedom House's classification of Partly Free as a proxy for hybrid regimes, then in 2014 they were slightly more common than classic authoritarian regimes.
The dynamics of hybrid regimes-why some remain stable over time while others become either more democratic or more autocratic-are less well understood. Venezuela under Hugo Chávez (1999-2013) is a case of a hybrid regime that rapidly moved toward increasing authoritarianism. In the Freedom in the World report for 1999-2000, Freedom House lowered Venezuela's rating from Free to Partly Free. Venezuela's turn toward greater autocracy accelerated over the years, reaching new levels under Chávez's successor Nicolás Maduro (2013-present). Today, Venezuela ranks as the least free of all Partly Free regimes in Latin America.
This raises two questions. First, what are the mechanisms by which a competitive authoritarian regime turns more autocratic? By definition, a hybrid regime is one in which the executive branch concentrates powers to the detriment of nonstate and opposition actors. But what else needs to happen for us to say that it has turned more autocratic? This essay examines Venezuela since 1999 to show how such a transformation can take place. My argument focuses on the use, abuse, and non-use of the rule of law.
Second, what were the causes of Venezuela's rapid move toward greater authoritarianism, especially in the last five years of chavismo? Drawing from my previous work (often in collaboration with other authors), I offer two basic arguments. One focuses on domestic factors: The ruling party's declining electoral competitiveness since the late 2000s, together with path dependence, helps to explain Venezuela' s turn toward greater authoritarianism. The other focuses on foreign policy: By 2010, Venezuela had succeeded in creating a foreign policy that shielded it from international pressures. Although other factors were no doubt at play, these two served as the most essential drivers.
During Chávez's presidency, Venezuela became the...