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Now that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has invited Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into the club, what should Canada contribute to the cost of rearming Central Europe?
For over 40 year, nearly all Canadian leaders (of every political stripe) have wanted to be part of the NATO club. But they have often disagreed about what should be the extent and measure of our NATO commitments. Cabinet debates about fulfilling our commitments -- whether about acquiring nuclear weapons, reducing the number of Canadian Forces in Europe, or testing cruise missiles for NATO's two-track strategy -- have been marked by strong disagreement and fervent argument. Behind the scenes, debate has raged around what should be the type, extent, and cost of our commitments -- not on whether or not Canada should remain a NATO member.(f.1) Now that NATO will in all likelihood expand, we can expect more debate in Ottawa, perhaps across the country, about what share of the defence burden Canada would be willing to shoulder.
The Costs of NATO Enlargement
What will be the costs of NATO enlargement? Recent American and NATO estimates have varied a great deal.(f.2) At the recent NATO summit in Madrid, U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen said expansion will cost between $27 billion and $35 billion US over the next 13 years.(f.3) This estimate stems from a congressional report released by the State Department on behalf of President Clinton and the Defence Department in February 1997. The report assumes that new members will bear much of the cost of their own of President Clinton and the Defence Department in February 1997. The report assumes that new members will bear much of the cost of their own "modernization" and "restructuring" ($10 billion to $13 billion) and some of the costs of "direct enlargement" ($3 billion to $4.5 billion). But current members, such as Canada, will also be expected to contribute to direct enlargement ($6 billion to $7.5 billion) and a fair share of those NATO "regional reinforcement capabilities" that are commonly funded (8 billion to $10 billion).(f.4)
These estimates may be too low.(f.5) We need to recognize that would-be NATO allies such as Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will also spend a great deal of money...