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Rev World Econ (2013) 149:565585 DOI 10.1007/s10290-013-0149-2
ORIGINAL PAPER
Steven Husted Shuichiro Nishioka
Published online: 6 February 2013 Kiel Institute 2013
Abstract The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 19952010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as Chinas trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we nd strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of Chinas gains. Rather, our results suggest that Chinas share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States.
Keywords Chinese exports Constant market share analysis Export shares
JEL Classication F14 P33
1 Introduction
Over the past two decades the Chinese economy has grown at a remarkable pace. Between 1995 and 2007 Chinese real GDP grew at an average annual rate of more
S. Husted (&)
Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, 4508 WW Posvar Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15216, USA e-mail: [email protected]
S. Nishioka
Department of Economics, West Virginia University,1601 University Avenue, Morgantown, WV 26506-6025, USA e-mail: [email protected]
Chinas fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade
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than 10 %. Per capita real GDP rose by 250 % over this period.1 One of the leading factors driving this economic growth has been the extraordinary performance of Chinese exports. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), in 2010 China ranked rst in exports to the world market with merchandise export sales of more than $1.5 trillion and a world market share of 10.4 %. In 1998, China had less than 2 % of the world market. Twenty years earlier, Chinas share was essentially zero. As Chinas share of world exports has grown, it has come under increasing pressure to allow its currency to appreciate; often the criticism of its exchange rate practices includes charges that other developing and...