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Climatic Change (2017) 142:169182
DOI 10.1007/s10584-017-1948-6
Molly E. Brown1 & Chris Funk2,3 & Diego Pedreros3 & Diriba Korecha4 & Melesse Lemma5 & James Rowland2 & Emily Williams3 & James Verdin2
Received: 26 July 2016 /Accepted: 14 March 2017 /Published online: 22 March 2017 # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017
Abstract Ethiopia experiences significant climate-induced drought and stress on crop and livestock productivity, contributing to widespread food insecurity. Here, we present subseasonal crop water stress analyses that indicate degrading, growing conditions along Ethiopias eastern highlands, including productive and populated highland regions. These seasonally shifting areas of increasing water stress stretch from the north to south across eastern Ethiopia, intersecting regions of acute food insecurity and/or high population. Crop model simulations indicate that between 1982 and 2014, parts of eastern Amhara and eastern Oromia experienced increasing water deficits during the critical sowing, flowering, and ripening periods of crop growth. These trends occurred while population in these regions increased by 143% between 2000 and 2015. These areas of enhanced crop water stress in south-central Ethiopia coincide with regions of high population growth and ongoing crop extensification. Conversely, large regions of relatively unpopulated western Ethiopia are becoming wetter. These areas may therefore be good targets for agricultural development.
* Molly E. Brown [email protected]
1 Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
2 U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD, USA
3 Climate Hazards Group, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
4 Climate Hazards Group, FEWS NET, Nairobi, Kenya
5 Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1007/s10584-017-1948-6&domain=pdf
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Web End = A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions
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Web End = 170 Climatic Change (2017) 142:169182
1 Introduction
Ethiopia is one of the largest humanitarian aid beneficiaries in the world and experiences significant climate-induced drought and water-related stresses on crop and livestock productivity (WFP 2015). Approximately 95 million people live in Ethiopia, with an expected population doubling time of 23 years (UNDP 2012). Every year, approximately three million Ethiopians are affected by crop production shortfalls, adding to the 7.6 million supported every year by the Productive Safety Net Program (GOE 2015), a social safety net supporting some of Ethiopias poorest and...