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Immigration and Emigration Patterns, 1980-1991*
In the history of human migration, rarely has a situation arisen in which simultaneous voluntary immigration and emigration flows have dramatically transformed the ethnic composition of an independent country. Belize since its independence in 1981 provides an example of such an unusual combination of circumstances. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, anecdotal evidence began to accumulate suggesting that the country's population was undergoing profound structural changes that included realignment of its settlement patterns and alteration of its ethnic mix.
Normally, changes in the total populations of developing countries result from natural increases (births minus deaths) and net migration (immigration minus emigration), with natural increases being the dominant effect. In Belize during the 1980s, however, net migration (the difference between the number of emigrants and immigrants) was the major factor responsible for both population growth and demographic changes.
Several analysts argued that the selective emigration of large numbers of English-speaking Afro-Belizeans (creoles and Garifuna) to the United States and their replacement by Spanish-speaking immigrants (mestizos and Amerindians) from troubled neighboring countries in Central America were altering the ethnic composition and spatial distribution of the country's population (Everitt 1984a; Palacio 1988; Parvenu 1986; Stone 1990; Vernon 1988,1990). In attempting to assess the socioeconomic implications of the perceived demographic changes, several ad hoc estimates of immigration and emigration rates were made based on scanty empirical evidence (Vernon 1990; Stone 1990).
Data published in the 1991 Census of Belize and the 1990 U.S. Census of Population have confirmed earlier observations that the ethnic mix of Belize was undergoing significant changes. These data substantiated that large numbers of Afro-Belizeans had been emigrating to the United States and were being replaced numerically in Belize by Spanishspeakers from Central America (mainly Guatemalans and El Salvadorans), resulting in a "Latinization" of Belize's population. The share of the national population classified as Afro-Belizean dropped from nearly 48 percent in 1980 to 36 percent in 1991, while the mestizo population increased from 33 percent to 44 percent. The Maya-Q'eqchi' population rose slightly from 10 to 11 percent, while the Garifuna population dropped from 8 to 7 percent. Those categorized as "other" (East Indians, Mennonites, whites, and those who responded "other" or did not respond) dropped slightly from 10...