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Keywords
Computers, Viruses
Abstract
This paper provides interesting insights for anti-virus research, as it reflects a period of rapid uptake in the application of the Internet and the use of e-mail for business purposes. The purpose of the research is to provide independent justification of the growing prevalence of computer virus incidents over the past five years, and identify patterns in the frequency and distribution of computer viruses. Specifically, the analysis focuses on examining the claims that computer viruses are increasing in prevalence, that computer viruses follow an evolutionary pattern and that seasonality exists in the distribution of computer viruses.
Introduction
Anti-virus research indicates a worldwide increase in the prevalence of computer viruses, which has been largely attributed to the growing ease of virus distribution, fuelled by the increased application of the Internet and e-mail for business purposes. Annual research conducted by ICSA Laboratories into the prevalence of computer viruses, suggests the threat posed by viruses is worsening, with the "likelihood of a company experiencing a computer virus having doubled each year for the past five years", (Bridwell and Tibbett, 2000). In addition to the increased prevalence of computer viruses, the nature of the virus threat is also evolving. As advancements are made in operating and applications environments, changes in technology have facilitated the development of new types of viruses that propagate more rapidly, are more widely distributed and more effective in avoiding detection. Organizations that fail to update virus protection systems regularly will remain unnecessarily exposed, as methods proven effective in protecting against boot sector viruses, spread predominately by floppy disk, are not likely to provide any defense against file or script viruses, which are typically distributed by e-mail.
Anti-virus research indicates that patterns may also exist in the distribution and frequency of computer viruses. Specifically, statistics indicate the increased prevalence of computer viruses around the holiday seasons. According to Banes (2001) there are "increased levels of virus and worm activity around Easter time". Although the Melissa, the Love Bug, and the AnnaK viruses were all released during the April-May period, quantitative analysis is not publicly available to support the claim that seasonality may occur in the distribution of computer viruses.
The purpose of this research is to provide independent...